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Tuesday, April 26, 2011

I Don't Think Donald Trump Is Going To Run For President

I do think Donald Trump is going to announce that he is running for president.

My headline and that statement above conflict huh? They seem to be a contradiction, don't they?

Let me explain why they aren't.

Two months ago I thought Donald Trump was seriously thinking of running for president in 2012. As more times goes by, with each interview he gives, with every discussion he has with someone who then comes out and says they believe Trump will run, the less I think it is likely.

I am going to use today as an example, the screenshot below is of Memeorandum, a website that shows what political news stories are being discussed the most.

Trump is once again at the top of the political news. Almost every news outlet from Fox News to CNN is giving him air time, interview after interview. Polls are being conducted with Trump in them.

Trump. Trump. Trump.

The man knows how get publicity, he is brilliant at it.

I am going to make a few observations here that should be obvious to everyone at this point.

1) Donald Trump is disappointed in the job Barack Obama has done as President and does not want him reelected.

2) Trump knows that no potential Republican candidate will seriously discuss the "birther" issue.

3) Trump knows that there is a segment of the American population, more than 25 percent, that have doubts about Barack Obama birthplace.

Now, if you were Donald Trump, a man that can garner the type of media and blog attention (good or bad) shown above, on a consistent basis, and you knew that no serious Democratic contender was going to primary against Obama and you want Obama out of office in 2012..... what could you do, other than donating to a Republican presidential candidate's campaign, to help?

If I were a billionaire who was willing to donate tens of millions of dollars to a cause but could not directly donate it to a candidate because of pesky campaign finance laws, but could use that money in a campaign for myself, I would announce I am running.

I would use those millions to create seeds of doubt into every aspect of Barack Obama's life. I would pull as many of the 18 percent of Americans who are unsure of Obama's birthplace over to the 25 percent that already doubt where Obama was born. I would also tap into the segment of Americans that have questions about Barack Obama's education. I would continue doing this into 2012.

Then I would drop out, kick back, watch the Republican candidate of choice argue the issues such as gas prices doubling and getting closer to tripling under the Obama administration, the economy, social issues, taxes, budgets, etc... areas where the American public are already polling higher in disapproval on Obama than in approval.

"I'd love for him to produce his birth certificate so that you can fight one-on-one. If you look at what he's doing to fuel prices, you can do a great fight one-on-one, you don't need this issue."--- Donald Trump, CNN.

Trump knows a Republican candidate can fight one-on-one over the issues but Donald Trump is a business man, through and through, and a very successful one at that.

A good business man knows that if you have a 50/50 chance at winning a deal, tipping the scales in your favor, which in this case is seeing to it that Obama is not reelected in 2012, gives you a better shot at closing that deal.

So you see, I do think Donald Trump is going to announce his candidacy (Unless he thinks he has done enough damage to Obama before then) and I do think he is going to campaign like he is seriously running.

I also think he is going to pull out of the race before the GOP primaries.

Just my opinion and I could be wrong, but if I were Donald Trump, that is exactly what I would do.

PS- Followup questions... If you were a billionaire with a successful television show, businesses out the gazoo, a real estate mogul with more money than you knew what to do with, would you actually want to take on the job of running a country the size of America following a president who has done everything in his power to destroy it economically?

Would you want to go from a position of making the final decisions to having to play the political games with Congress to be allowed to get anything done?

I certainly wouldn't.