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Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Gallup: Romney 50%, Obama 46% Among Likely Voters- NPR: Romney Rural Landslide

By Susan Duclos

Mitt Romney's momentum hasn't slowed as shown in polling conducted since the first presidential debate, except from one poll discussed yesterday from Wapo/ABC News, which sampled 9 percent more Democrats than Republicans.

Via Gallup:

Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.

Gallup's Bottom Line:

With three weeks to go in the campaign, Obama appears to be losing momentum, and now trails Romney by four percentage points among likely voters. That contrasts with his seven-point win over McCain in 2008. Given this shift in overall voter preferences, it follows that Obama will have lost support among at least some subgroups of the electorate. Those losses are not proportionate across all subgroups, however. He shed the most support among Southerners, college graduates, postgraduates, 30- to 49-year-olds, men, and Protestants. He also lost a moderate amount of support among whites, Easterners, women, and Catholics -- while not building new support elsewhere.

Gallup's registered voter trends indicate that Obama has lost ground with voters since the start of the month, most likely reflecting his poorly reviewed performance in the first presidential debate. Gallup research indicates that debates are rarely transformative events in presidential elections, but Denver may ultimately be seen as an exception, given the changes, albeit minor, that ensued in what has been a highly competitive election. Obama must now hope to reverse those with a resounding win of his own in at least one or both of the upcoming debates in New York and Florida.

Obama has been way ahead of Romney with women voters, but the USA Today/Gallup finding shows that is no longer the case:

Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation's top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee has pulled within one point of the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-49%, and leads by 8 points among men.

Other polling news, via NPR, shows Romney with a massive lead over Obama among likely rural voters in nine battleground states.

The random cellphone and land line poll of 600 likely rural voters in nine battleground states Oct. 9-11 has Romney at 59 percent among the survey's respondents. Obama's support is now down to 37 percent among rural battleground voters, a plunge of 10 points from the actual rural vote in those states four years ago.

Democrat's,  liberals, and the Obama reelection campaign are hoping for a strong Obama debate performance tonight to try to slow Mitt's momentum in these last weeks before the November presidential election.

We will be live streaming the debate this evening HERE.