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Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Even Stacking Poll Sample With Dems ABC/Wapo Find 75% Want Obamacare Gone In Part or Whole

By Susan Duclos

ABC News/Washington Post poll, when asking respondents about Obamacare aka Affordable Care Act, shows that "Two-thirds continue to say the high court should throw out either the entire law (38 percent) or at least the part that requires most individuals to obtain coverage (29 percent) or face a penalty; just a quarter want the court to uphold the law as is." (Source- ABC News)

Hot Air consistently delves into polling samples when discussing poll results and the polling sample used in this poll was D/R/I of 34/23/34. That is Dems +11. This should, in theory, skewer all the results of the poll to favor Obamacare and Barack Obama since other polling questions were presented.

While Hot Air mentions this skewed sampling and uses the CNN exit polling from the 2010 midterms for comparison purposes, numbers from Gallup in 2012, shows the stacked sampling to be even worse than what they describe.

In January 2012 Gallup finds the breakdown in identification is Democrat 31 percent, Republican 27 percent and Independent 40 percent. In that same poll, when Independents are removed and categorized at leaners who lean either towards Republican or towards Democratic ideology, those numbers come it at 45 percent to 45 percent.

Since pollsters do divide the samples up between Democrats, Republicans and Independents, then results if sampled appropriately, would lean towards a conservative ideology and the ABC/Wapo poll numbers are even more unrepresentative of public opinion as a whole than has been stated.

Another Gallup poll from January shows that 41 percent of Independents consider themselves moderate, 35 percent self-identify as conservative with only 20 percent identifying as liberal.

Gallups Bottom Line:

Sizable segments of Americans identify with each of the three major ideological groups on the U.S. political spectrum; however, in recent years, conservatives have become the single largest group, consistently outnumbering moderates since 2009 and outnumbering liberals by 2-to-1.

Overall, the nation has grown more ideologically polarized over the past decade, with the percentage of moderates declining from 40% to 35% and the percentages of conservatives and liberals each rising. The increase in the proportion of conservatives is entirely the result of increased conservatism among Republicans and independents, and is also seen in Americans 30 and older -- particularly seniors. The increase in the proportion of liberals is seen exclusively among Democrats as well as in all age groups.

According to ABC News' article on this latest poll, had they represented Republicans, Democrats and Independents correctly, taking into account the ideological leanings and self-identification provided by Gallup, who has been polling ideology for decades, the 75 percent number of respondents that want the Obamacare law overturned either as a whole or in part, would be even higher.

Both Republicans and Independents, each group under sampled, according to self-identification figures, in the ABC/Wapo poll, want Obamacare overturned in part or as a whole.

Via ABC News:

Seventy-nine percent of Republicans oppose the law in general and nearly two-thirds would like the Supreme Court to throw out the law entirely, for instance, while 63 percent of Democrats support it and nearly half want the court to keep it intact.

Those numbers among Democrats, while sharply different from views among Republicans, underscore the law’s weak support. Further, more independents oppose it than support it – 56-35 percent – and 73 percent would like it rejected entirely (41 percent) or insofar as the individual mandate (32 percent), much more in line with Republicans than Democrats.

With the Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare expected in June or early July, bringing this issue right back to the forefront as it was in the 2010 midterms, these numbers from even a Democratically stacked ABC/Wapo poll should concern Obama and Democrats greatly.

Those that depend on media pollsters for information should be even more concerned because while they are being told things are bad, exactly how bad things truly are, is being hidden from them with deliberate intent.