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Friday, July 22, 2011

Pew Research Shows GOP Gains Support With All But Hispanics

According to the side by side comparison chart Pew Research shows (will show it below) the GOP has gained ground with all voters except Hispanics since the 2008 elections, but their biggest gains are among younger white voters and those making $30K or less.

Republican gains/losses:

4 percent gain among all voters
6 percent gain among whites
2 percent gain among blacks
6 percent loss among hispanics

Republican gain among whites broken down by age groups:

10 percent gain among those aged between 18 and 29
6 percent gain among those aged between 30 to 49
5 percent gain among those aged between 50 to 64
5 percent gain among those over 65 years old

Republican gain among whites broken down by income:

2 percent gain among those making $75K or more
7 percent gain among those making $30-75K
10 percent gain among those making $30K or less

Overview from Pew:

As the country enters into the 2012 presidential election cycle, the electorate’s partisan affiliations have shifted significantly since Barack Obama won office nearly three years ago. In particular, the Democrats hold a much narrower edge than they did in 2008, particularly when the partisan leanings of independents are taken into account.

Notably, the GOP gains have occurred only among white voters; a 2-point Republican edge among whites in 2008 (46% to 44%) has widened to a 13-point lead today (52% to 39%). In sharp contrast, the partisan attachments of black and Hispanic voters have remained consistently Democratic.

While Republican gains in leaned party identification span nearly all subgroups of whites, they are particularly pronounced among the young and poor. A seven-point Democratic advantage among whites under age 30 three years ago has turned into an 11-point GOP advantage today. And a 15-point Democratic advantage among whites earning less than $30,000 annually has swung to a slim four-point Republican edge today.

Yet, the Republican Party’s growth has been limited in two important ways. First, the steep gains in GOP leaning that helped the party in the 2010 midterms have not continued, as the overall balance of partisan attachments has held steady in the first half of 2011. Second, while more independents say they “lean” toward the Republican Party, the GOP has not gained in actual party affiliation since 2008 – just 28% of registered voters, in both years, call themselves Republicans. Instead, the growth category continues to be political independents, with a record high 34% of registered voters choosing this label in 2011.

Keeping in mind that Obama was elected over John McCain by a 7 point margin, the GOP gains almost across the board should be very concerning to Obama for his reelection hopes heading into 2012. Especially if the GOP nominates a candidate that conservatives can get behind.

Semi-related: CNN finds that Rick Perry, should he decide to toss his hat in the ring, is the first choice Republicans and Independents who lean towards the GOP, are picking.