When David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, told Bill O'Reilly they were removing their pollsters from Florida, Virginia and North Carolina because Mitt Romney had all three states in the bag, many thought he was putting the cart before the horse and making assumptions that might not fully be realized.
(Note- At the bottom of the post is the electoral map which reflects FL., VA., and NC., as solid Romney)
[WATCH]
Polls released since he dropped that bombshell has shown why he made those assertions.
Florida
Yesterday, a Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. The month before Obama had led by one 48/47, making that an eight point net gain for Romney.
Other findings:
• Obama's lead among likely women voters in Florida fell from 15 percentage points last month to just 2 points, 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney.
• Obama's once 11 point lead among likely independent voters had cascaded into a 13 point lead for Romney this week, 52 percent to 39 percent.
ARG also gives Romney a three point lead and Rasmussen a four point lead over Obama for Florida.
Virginia
A McLaughlin & Associates poll in Virginia finds Mitt Romney has the same 51 percent to 44 percent lead for Mitt Romney over Obama.
Other findings:
• Romney holds an 11 percentage point lead over Obama among Independent likely voters.
North Carolina
A Gravis Marketing poll finds Mitt Romney holds a 9 point lead over Obama among likely voters in North Carolina.
Other findings:
• Among voters not affiliated with either major party, "others," Mitt Romney leads by 25 percentage points over Obama 51 percent to 26 percent.
According to the RCP Electoral Map, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina are still listed as toss-up states not colored for Obama or Romney and the totals are 201 for Obama/Biden, 181 for Romney/Ryan. 156 are listed as toss-ups.
If pollsters like Paleologos are correct and the polling from other organizations seems to suggest he is, as shown above, then coloring those three states solid Romney puts Romney/Ryan at 238, Obama/Biden 201 and toss-ups 99.
[Update] Miami Herald piece on the Florida poll, here.
(Corrected polling image placement)
