The Politico/GWU Battleground tracking poll has Obama leading Mitt Romney by one point, in a poll using a sample consisting of 4 percent more Democrats than Republicans (better than the D+9 that other polls have been using), but the interesting part of the Politico Battleground poll comes from the internals which state that according to their "vote election model," gives Mitt Romney a win on election day by five points, 52 percent to Obama's 47 percent.
In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory.
According to pollster Ed Goeas, Mitt Romney has the advantage among middle class voters, 52/45 and Obama could close that gap with a strong voter turnout, but states "reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory."
The Washington Post-ABC News Poll gives Romney a one point lead over Obama.
Rasmussen has Romney up by two and Gallup has Romney ahead by
Since we are dealing with polling news, another Gallup poll is indicative of why Romney holds the advantage in the days leading up to the election.
Keep in mind, every priority poll conducted to date, has shown the issues listed "most important" to respondents is the economy and/or jobs.
With that said, Gallup shows what Americans see as each candidates strengths.
Romney's top five are, in order, "Good businessman", "Economic policies", "Brings fresh approach/change/new ideas", "Good at handling finances/budgets", and "Honest/has integrity."
Obama's top five are, in order, "Excellent speaker/communicator", "For the people/helps less fortunate", "Good personality/down to earth/charming", "Levelheaded/determined", and "Leadership/strong/determined."
For an electorate focused on economic issues, Romney's listed strengths vs Obama's, clearly shows why the race has tiled in Romney's favor.
