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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

ABC News Moves Pennsylvania, Minnesota from ‘Safe’ to ‘Lean’ Obama

By Susan Duclos

The headline pretty much says it all and comes from Amy Walter at ABC News as they explain that they have moved both Pennsylvania and Minnesota from safe or solid Obama to "leans" Obama, showing how close this presidential race between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama has become.

Pennsylvania- According to 270toWin, out of the last 10 presidential elections, PA has only voted for a Republican presidential candidate four times, the last being in 1988.

According to the latest Rasmussen poll, Obama holds a five point lead in Pennsylvania.

Minnesota- According to 270toWin, out of the last 10 presidential elections, Minn. has only voted for a Republican presidential candidate one time, in 1972.

According to the latest Rasmussen poll, Obama holds a five point lead in Minnesota, but according to the latest  Mason-Dixon polling, Obama's lead is down to three.

Hence Bill Clinton being dispatched to Minnesota to shore up support for Obama. Paul Ryan may be headed there as well for the Romney campaign.

The Romney campaign has also reserved TV time in Pennsylvania for the last two days of the campaign, including election day.

Via Politico:

UPDATE: Romney political director Rich Beeson leans harder into the idea of Pennsylvania in a memo the campaign just released:
As a campaign, we will put more resources into the target states in the final week, than previous GOP campaigns have been able to do in the final 10 weeks. The Romney campaign has the resources to expand the map in ways that weren’t possible in past cycles (without reducing any effort in any other target state). After fully funding the paid media effort, the ground operations and the voter contact programs, Governor Romney’s message of bringing real recovery continues to resonate with voters, volunteers, and donors. 
Pennsylvania presents a unique opportunity for the Romney campaign. Over the past few years we have seen Pennsylvania voting for a Republican senator and a Republican governor, and Republicans win control of the State House in addition to the State Senate. The western part of the Keystone State has become more conservative (and President Obama’s war on coal is very unpopular there), and Mitt Romney is more competitive in the voter-rich Philadelphia suburbs than any Republican nominee since 1988. This makes Pennsylvania a natural next step as we expand the playing field.
While the Obama campaign would like to wish it is 2008, the reality is that they are now forced to “play defense” in least six states (Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa and Wisconsin) that they once believed were “safe” Obama wins.
As the Romney-Ryan message continues to resonate and GOP momentum continues to build, we are adding Pennsylvania to the long list of states where we are expending significant resources in order to bring real recovery to the country, while continuing to implement and fund full-scale efforts in all the target states.

 The Romney campaign intends to capitalize on the sustained momentum they have been seeing since the first Presidential debate on October 3.

[Update] Via Romney's campaign- PA's Governor  Ed Rendell recent made comments that a "‘Startling upset’ for Romney ‘a possibility’ in Pennsylvania."