Resurgent Republic's latest poll release has Mitt Romney leading Obama by one percent nationally, in line with RCP's polling averages which has Romney in the lead by 0.8 percent. (Note- the RCP numbers change as new polls get added into the averages)
According to the release from Resurgent Republic, the change in the race has been driven by Independent voters.
President Obama defeated Senator John McCain among Independent voters in 2008 by eight percentage points (52 to 44 percent), one of the main reasons Obama won the presidential election. But this survey shows Obama's support collapsing among Independents. Governor Mitt Romney leads Obama among Independents by 51 to 39 percent. If those numbers hold, that would mark a net 20-point turnaround for Obama among Independent voters in four years.
Problems with Independent voters are nothing new for Barack Obama. Since our first survey in April of 2009, Resurgent Republic has been pointing out Obama's weakness among Independents and their resistance to his fiscal and economic policies. But this is the first survey since Mitt Romney secured the Republican nomination to show Obama trailing among Independents by double digits.
Even more interesting is these numbers come from a sample using four percent more Democrats than Republicans.
A portion of the survey was conducted for NPR in conjunction with Democracy Corps. The survey polled 1000 likely voters nationally, including an oversample to reach a total of 462 voters in twelve battleground states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The sample contains four percentage points more Democrats than Republicans, 35 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican....
Other Findings:
• Also for the first time in our polling, Romney's favorable rating surpasses his unfavorable rating, and his rating is now slightly better than Obama's
• Battleground states taken as a whole still give Obama a narrow lead.
• Republicans are now more enthusiastic than Democrats or Independents about voting in the Presidential election
• Compared to 2008 exit polls, Mitt Romney is running significantly ahead of John McCain among many important groups in the electorate. The following chart compares the McCain's lead or deficit from exit polls with Romney's lead or deficit from this survey.
• Voters now trust Romney more than Obama on handling jobs and the economy, the number one issue facing the country. By 50 to 46 percent, voters trust Romney more on handling jobs and the economy. Independents trust Romney by 55 to 36 percent, while battleground voters are split at 48 percent Romney/49 percent Obama.
• Obama's greatest advantage lies on handling foreign policy and diplomacy
The conclusion:
This Presidential election bears similarities to 1980 when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter. While Barack Obama is in a far stronger position now than Carter was then (Obama's job approval is 49 percent; Carter's was in the mid-30s), both elections feature an incumbent Democratic president trying to paint his Republican challenger as a dangerous right-winger. Both elections feature debates where the Republican challenger's performance undercut the opposition's argument, and led to a surge on the ballot. Since the Republican candidate became an acceptable alternative through the debates, the election devolved into a referendum on the incumbent and his record. Carter could not win that referendum. Next week we will see if Barack Obama can.
RR's infographic can be found here and the entire results release here.
