"The question in this election is not are you better off than you were four years ago? The real question is will this country be better off four years from now"?--- Barack Obama, 2008
MSNBC's First Read shows a marked difference between Democratic potential electoral votes from back in April and what they are now.
Looking at today's numbers which are 196 electoral votes are in the Democratic column, while 195 are in the GOP column. And 147 electoral votes are considered a toss-up.
50/50 chance for Obama to win reelection when you look at those numbers..... until you compare them with what those numbers were in April.
In April, it was 232 Dem, 191 GOP, with 115 toss-up. The big changes from April (and they’re all in the GOP’s direction)
Losing 36 "safe" electoral votes in seven months while Republicans have gained four is certainly not a pattern that Democrats can be comfortable with heading into 2012.
With Gallup showing that a generic Republican candidate ahead of Obama by eight points among registered voters, in their Generic Presidential poll, and Rasmussen showing Republicans ahead by five points among likely voters, combined with an average of 73.6 percent of Americans thinking the country is headed in the wrong direction under Obama, and unemployment still at nine percent, and the U6 real unemployment over 16 percent, there is a very good chance that Barack Obama will be a one term President.
[Update] Rasmussen just released their generic congressional ballot which has Republicans up by seven points.
(Note- In the 2012 elections, 23 Democratic Senate seats are up for election and only 10 Republicans seats.)
One year to go, a lot can change but as of now, Obama is facing an uphill battle to change the mood of the country.
