Illinois 11th Congressional District

Many have asked us what they can do now to help elect Republicans in November. As a practical matter, we have to wait until the Republican candidate is chosen in a primary election. Fortunately, Illinois has already held a primary election and Texas has held the first round with any required runoff races to be held on April 13th. We will only look at races where we feel the Republican candidate has a decent chance of beating the Democrat incumbent.

Illinois has four competitive races against Democrat incumbents so we will look at another of those today:

Illinois 11th House District

Democrat Rep. Debbie Halvorson

Republican Adam Kinzinger

Illinois 11th Congressional District

Representative Halvorson carried this district by a 23.92% margin in 2008 while McCain-Palin were losing by an 8.18% margin. The former Republican incumbent, Gerald C. "Jerry" Weller, retired in 2008. He had represented this district since 1994. Due to the high margin and the McCain-Palin loss, we cannot give it more than an outside chance since it would take a year like 1994 to overcome those factors. Rep. Halvorson has made it easier by voting for both health care bills. As you can see from the poll below, the Republican candidate is doing far better than the mathematical odds would predict.

The Republican primary has already been held in Illinois so the Republican candidate is:

Adam Kinzinger (R) - Ex-McLean County Commissioner & Iraq War Veteran

His website is Adam Kinzinger for U.S. Congress

We Ask America Poll Results on 3/18/10

ILLINOIS 11	RESULTS
Sample Size	804
Democrat Debbie Halvorson	30.22%
Republican Adam Kinzinger	42.04%
Unsure	26.99%

Ratings for This District

MARGIN	OBAMA	MARSTON	CQ POL	COOK	ROTHENBERG
23.92%	8.18%	Leans D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D

Last 3 Election Results

Nov 04, 2008	Debbie Halvorson 185,652 58.40% Marty Ozinga 109,608 34.48% Jason Wallace 22,635 7.12%
Nov 07, 2006	Gerald C. "Jerry" Weller(I) 109,009 55.10% John Pavich 88,846 44.90%
Nov 02, 2004	Gerald C. "Jerry" Weller(I) 173,057 58.67% Tari Renner 121,903 41.33%

Here are the demographics for this District:

Cities in Illinois 11

tate	District	65 or Older	White	Black	Latino	HS Grad	Coll 4Yr	Median HH Income	Poverty Level
United States		16.7%	74.3%	12.3%	15.1%	84.5%	27.4%	52,175	13.2%
Illinois	11	14.9%	85.1%	8.3%	10.3%	88.0%	21.4%	58,652	9.9%