Representative Stupak carried this district by a 32.3% margin in 2008 while McCain-Palin were losing it by 1.82%. Ordinarily this would make this a safe district. But that was before Rep. Stupak made a cause out of preventing federal funding of abortions in the Obama care bill. Having made a strong case he then sold out his principles for a useless piece of paper and made himself vulnerable because he has now alienated both sides of the abortion debate. Because he made himself out to be pro-life, he attracted a pro-abortion Democrat lady to run against him in the primary. He already had Republican opposition but when he gave into Pelosi and Obama, he infuriated the conservatives by his betrayal who will now fund his Republican opposition.
Rep. Stupak apparently figured that he had more to worry from a left wing Democrat in the primary than he had to worry about any Republican challenger. In this he made a huge mistake for now everyone will be funding his opposition albeit for far different reasons. This is what happens when a politician tries to play both ends against the middle. He had a safe district but he was so busy looking over his left shoulder at the Democrat opponent he neglected to look over his right shoulder to see the Republicans gaining on him after he energizing them to the maximum. We can only give the Republicans the lowest possible chance in the quite possible bets group at this time but that may well change soon.
Several Republicans agree with this assessment and are vying for this seat according to politics1.com:
Dan Benishek (R) - Surgeon & GOP Activist
Linda Goldthorpe (R) - Attorney, Ron Paul Campaign Activist & '08 Candidate
Don Hooper (R) - Retired Businessman, Army Veteran & Frequent Candidate
Dennis Lennox (R) - Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner, Non-Profit Group Executive, Ex-State Legislative Aide & Pro-Life Activist
|MARGIN ||OBAMA ||MARSTON ||CQ POL||COOK ||ROTHENBERG |
|#19.16% ||1.82% ||D toss-up ||Safe D ||Safe D ||Safe D |
|Nov 04, 2008|| |
|Nov 07, 2006|| |
|Nov 02, 2004|| |
Here are the demographics for this District:
|State||District||65 or Older ||White ||Black||Latino||HS Grad ||Coll 4Yr ||Median HH Income ||Poverty Level |
|United States ||16.7%||74.3%||12.3%||15.1%||84.5%||27.4%||52,175||13.2%|