Although all the polls show the GOP down and the Democratic party ahead, a few things give me hope that this election may just feel like a moment in "Deliverance" for the Democrats.
We have Barron's report and their previous correct calls on elections. In 2004, Barron's correctly predicted a rise for the Republicans in congress.
THE STATE OF THE UNION is cause for anxiety. Our military is stretched thin in Afghanistan and Iraq; the profligate Congress has turned a surplus into a record deficit; and the economy is threatened by trade imbalances, job losses, high oil prices and a health-care affordability crisis.
In light of this doleful litany, you'd expect voters to "Throw the bums out!" The bums in this case are the Republicans, who control not only the White House but both branches of the legislature. But the throwing-out will not materialize, in our view. While it's too soon to predict the presidential race, the GOP looks poised to strengthen its grip on Capitol Hill once all the votes are tallied after Nov. 2 and all the legal challenges are adjudicated.
Barron's predicts that the Republicans will pick up seven additional seats in the House and three more in the Senate, adding to the gains of the 2002 midterm election.
In the House, we foresee the Republicans with 234 members to the Democrats' 201, for a 53.8% majority, up from the current 227-205, or 52.5% majority. In the Senate, we believe the Republicans will end up with 54 members to the Democrats' 46, up from the current 51-49 advantage.
The predictions -- pointing to greater GOP gains than most observers expect -- reflect our view that the Republicans in key races generally have better grass-roots organizations than their rivals. The evidence: greater contributions from local residents as opposed to out-of-state interest groups. The Republicans are also helped by an economy that, while perceived less robust than before 2001, nonetheless is growing.
In sizing up the races, we looked at key polls, campaign-financing disclosures, economic indicators and insights from top political analysts -- a broad approach that served us well in forecasting the outcome of the 2000 and 2002 elections. In 2002, for instance, we were among the first and the few to correctly call a GOP win in the Senate. We predicted a 52-48 GOP advantage, when most other prognosticators saw Democrats winning control. We also correctly called a GOP surge in the House. We predicted a 225-seat majority, which was only two seats short of the actual result.
They were right. The methodology they used was basically "following the money" and seeing where it leads by using history as guide.
IN 2002, 413 HOUSE SEATS out of 435 were won by candidates with the most money, according to a study by the Center for Responsive Politics. That's 95%. In the Senate, cash triumphed in 26 of the 34 races, or 76%. To supplement our own work, we drew on insights from a trio of top political observers: Hohlt, legendary GOP election analyst John Morgan and Democratic guru Dave Beattie, a partner in Hamilton, Beattie & Staff, a polling and strategy firm. All three helped us handicap the closest races across the country. This is art, not science, so we also relied on our instincts. Some of the hottest action is in Senate races. Democrats believe that they have a chance this year to take control of the 100-seat Senate by 51 to 49. There are 19 Senate seats currently occupied by Democrats that are in contention, and we predict that Republicans will win five of them: Louisiana. South Dakota, Florida, South Carolina and Georgia. There are 15 seats up for grabs held by Republicans. We predict that the Democrats will win two of them: Illinois and Oklahoma. Here's a rundown on nine of the most interesting races in the Senate.
I am beginning to see why Rove and President Bush aren't all that worried about this election, they do have reasons for believing things may not be as bad as the left media and the democratic party thinks things are.
Rove, being a history buff has seen these trends before and is confident that the Republicans will keep the senate and the house. He may just be right.
White House political strategist Karl Rove yesterday confidently predicted that the Republican Party would hold the House and the Senate in next month's elections, dismissing fallout from the sex scandal involving former Rep. Mark Foley.
At a luncheon with editors and reporters at The Washington Times, Mr. Rove -- who is widely credited as the architect of the party's historic 2002 midterm election gains -- said Republicans are beginning to make significant headway in defining their party's differences from congressional Democrats, especially on national security.
"I'm confident we're going to keep the Senate; I'm confident we're going to keep the House. The Foley matter has impact in some limited districts, but the research we have shows that people are differentiating between a vote for their congressman and a member from Florida," Mr. Rove said, referring to the Republican who resigned last month after his sexually explicit online messages to former congressional pages were discovered.
Whatever does happen in November will have to be dealt with either way, there is no use for the White House to be overly worried about it now. Time for that later.
I will say though, that for me, the image of the Democrats bent over and squealing like pigs, is quite amusing. IF the Republicans maintain control of the house and the senate, we can be sure to see conspiracy theories and accusations being thrown about because the Democratic party MUST have been cheated, they simply never have been able to admit that their lame stand on issues, their course of rolling back taxes, their attitude about "cutting and running" in Iraq are all issues that the American people do not agree with.
We are already seeing this BEFORE the election (Hat Tip to QuandO) with Lyn Davis Lears piece at the Huffington Post.
Here are some questions: Are these guys simply narcissistic idiots Rove-ing around in some never-never land bubble or do they know something we don't? Have they planned a grab bag nose punch of an October/November surprise? Or have Diebold, ES&S, and local state secretaries assured them that they will do "whatever it takes" to get a Republican Congress elected again? Or are they just planning to outspend us? Karl Rove recently told the Washington Times, "For most Americans, particularly the marginal voters who are going to determine the outcome of the election, it started a couple of weeks ago... Between now and the election we will spend $100 million in target House and Senate races in the next 21 days". That is $30 million a week in 15 or 16 key races. Knowing this group, the answers must lie in a clever blitzkrieg combo of all of the above.
Pretty sad when a party that is SO convinced they are going to take control of the senate and the house (and they may), are still creating excuses for losing the election before the ballots have been casted.
Either way, November promises to be an interesting month.
Remember to GET OUT AND VOTE, then you too can enjoy the image of the Democratic party imitating Deliverance and "squealing like the pigs". Isn't that a hysterical image?
Others posting: Sister Toldjah, Townhall, Strata-Sphere, PowerLine, FlapsBlog, Liberally Conservative, Conservative Man, Don Surber, Reformed Chicks Babbling, Rhymes with Right, Right Voices, Sma' Talk Wi'T, Right Side of the Rainbow. Right Truth and why you must vote in November.
If you like this post and find the visual as amusing as I do, go vote here for it.
By the way, a little GOOD news in Iraq from Pirate's Cove.
