After reading the Wapo article about "what the polls say", I did a little research of my own, to previous years.
After the 2002 vote, Democrats saw Bush's trifecta as their best bet in 2004.
"This is only good news for the '04 field," said one source close to one of the Democrats mulling a presidential bid. " Bush now has an unchecked government, " the source added. "That means voters will hold only one party responsible for the state of play, in particular the head of that party."
Then we have the polls of 2004 before the election.
Thinking about the elections in November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George Bush and the Democrat John Kerry, for whom would you vote: George Bush or John Kerry?
October 24-25, 2004Kerry 49% Bush 47% Nader 1% Other 1% Unsure 1% margin of error: 3.1% source: Democracy Corps Poll
If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote?
October 22-24, 2004Kerry 50% Bush 48% Other/Undecided 2% margin of error: 3.7% source: Survey USA
If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote?
October 23-25, 2004John Kerry 49% George W. Bush 46% Ralph Nader 1% Undecided 4% margin of error: 4% source: American Research Group
If the election for president and vice president were being held today and the names on the ballot included George W. Bush for President and Dick Cheney for Vice President, the Republicans, and John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice President, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - Bush, Kerry, or someone else?
October 21-24, 2004Kerry 47% Bush 45% Other 1.5% Undecided 6% margin of error: 4.1% source: Zogby International
If the election for president and vice president were being held today and the names on the ballot included George W. Bush for President and Dick Cheney for Vice President, the Republicans, and John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice President, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - Bush, Kerry, or someone else?
October 23-25, 2004Kerry 50% Bush 47% Other/Undecided 3% margin of error: 4% source: American Research Group
In the interest of fairness, Gallop had Bush ahead by 5%, Rasmussen had Bush ahead by 4%. Now look at the final results.
This is what happened. (For those unsure, all those states in red, are BUSH states)
The Chicago Tribune gave an analyses on the coming decline of political polls back on November 14, 2002.
Most people go into politics with some clear ideas of what they want to accomplish, but most end up parroting poll-tested slogans that some consultant says will charm (or fool) voters. They'll change their approach only if they learn that the polls are unreliable.
That development might put a lot of political consultants out of business. But it wouldn't be a bad thing if our leaders spent less time trying to figure out what the citizenry believes and more figuring out what they believe.
It is good advice, I rarely even look at polls, because they are not reliable and the people that are performing the polls are either calling a "certain" group or have question phrased in a way to get the results they are looking for.
All I can say is VOTE. Go to the polls and vote.
Also posting on this is Hugh Hewitt, Stop The ACLU, Hot Air, Church and State.
