The headline is the top line from the newly released ABC News poll conducted by Langer Research Associates,showing Romney hitting the 50 percent mark in support and receiving nine percent more support on the issue of the economy over Obama, 52 percent to 43 percent.
Equally important, Romney has erased Obama’s customary advantage on which candidate better understands the economic problems of average Americans. Today, 48 percent pick Obama, 46 percent Romney – essentially a dead heat. Yesterday and today mark the first time in the campaign that Obama hasn’t had at least a marginally significant lead on economic empathy.
More on Romney's momentum that liberals continue to claim has ended:
There are other signals of Romney’s gains. Expectations are one: Fifty-two percent of likely voters now expect Obama to win the election, down from a peak of 61 percent in late September. Forty percent expect Romney to win – still well fewer than half, but up by 8 percentage points.
Notably, political independents divide by 42-46 percent on whether they expect Obama or Romney to win; that’s shifted dramatically from 61-31 percent in Obama’s favor. Whites, likewise, have moved from a 55-38 percent expectation in Obama’s favor Sept. 29 to 44-48 percent now.
Romney is more competitive in another area, as well – international affairs. Even though likely voters by 2-1 picked Obama as the winner of Monday’s debate on foreign policy, comfort with Romney on the issue nonetheless has progressed. He runs essentially evenly with Obama in trust to handle international affairs, 48-47 percent, Obama-Romney; they were about this close on Monday, but it was +7 for Obama in mid-October and +8 in early September.
ABC's findings on the gender gap also confirms Gallup's finding that men now fuel the gender gap more than women do, Obama holds an 11 point lead among women, Romney holds a 17 point lead among men, give Romney a net 6 pt lead over Obama --- women for Obama by 54-43 percent; men for Romney by 57-40 percent.
Other findings:
• Romney never before has exceeded 49 percent support in ABC/Post polls, making his 50 percent a new high numerically. That includes new highs among a range of groups – including 60 percent support among whites, 56 percent among white women, 58 percent among middle- to upper-middle income adults and 83 percent among conservatives.
• Most strikingly, Romney’s advanced to 57 percent support among independents. They’re a changeable group, less rooted in partisan predispositions, so their eventual preferences – and their turnout – are uncertain. But they’re key to Romney’s current fortunes; he’s improved among independents by 9 points in the past week.
• Partisan divisions in this survey, Democrats-Republicans-independents, are 34-30-31 percent among likely voters.
Even sampling four percent more Democrats than Republicans, Romney's momentum still appears to be strong.
