According to Rasmussen the Massachusetts Special Senate Election between State Attorney General Martha Coakley and Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, to be held on January 19, 2010, shows a 9 point spread among likely voters in favor of Coakley, yet the numbers show (via Le-gal-In-sur-rec-tion) that among definite voters there is only a 2 point spread.
"Special elections are typically decided by who shows up to vote and it is clear from the data that Brown’s supporters are more enthusiastic. In fact, among those who are absolutely certain they will vote, Brown pulls to within two points of Coakley. That suggests a very low turnout will help the Republican and a higher turnout is better for the Democrat."
While Democrats in Massachusetts have a larger base of registered voters, Independents favor Brown, the Republican, by 44 percent.
Both candidates get better than 70% of the vote from members of their respective parties, but Brown leads 65% to 21% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. In Massachusetts, however, Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans and it is very difficult for the GOP to compete except in special circumstances. Eight percent (8%) of Democrats remain undecided while just 3% of Republicans are in that category.
Here is another interesting number Rasmussen reports:
Twenty-one percent (21%) of those likely to vote in the special election have a very favorable opinion of Coakley, while 22% have a Very Unfavorable view.
For Brown, the numbers are 25% very favorable and 5% very unfavorable.
The special election in Massachusetts is being held to replace deceased Ted Kennedy and while many thought a slam dunk for Democrats was a given, this race appears to be closer than anyone thought it would be when he first died.
Brown has done this without a lot of help from the GOP and the Republican National Committee and to have gotten this close, whether he wins or not, in Massachusetts no less, will give the Blue Dog Democrats something serious to think about going into November 2010's elections to where Republicans are expected to make large gains, double digits gains at least, and get within striking distance of taking the 41 seats needed to stop the railroading Nancy Pelosi has been doing with every bill she has jammed through the House of Representatives.
Feel free to head over to Brown's online fundraising link and help him in the final leg of his journey, if Republicans can take Massachusetts, then anything is possible.
.
