Democrats have cut in half the GOP's early-September advantage on the question of which party's candidates voters say they will support on Nov. 2. They have also made small gains on the question of which party people trust to handle big issues, such as the economy and health care.
One would think that is good news for Democrats, then again, Hot Air bursts that little bubble by looking at the skewed samples used in comparison with the last poll done.
And how did the Democrats manage this rather remarkable comeback? Well, the WaPo/ABC pollster managed to find their usual sample gap. They went from a 31/25/39 D/R/I split in September in the general sample and 31/26/37 among registered voters, to 33/23/29 in the general sample and 34/25/37 among registered voters. That nine-point advantage to Democrats among RVs is almost twice what it was in the previous sample.
Gallup on the other hand has finally begun listing register voter sample numbers alongside of likely voter projections and the results are great news for Republicans.
The Hill:
Gallup's first generic ballot estimate of likely voters showed Republicans leading Democrats 53-40 percent in a high turnout scenario and 56-38 percent in a low turnout scenario.
Over the last few weeks, Gallup's generic ballot polls of registered voters have shown both parties statistically tied. But the more narrow group of voters likely to cast ballots on Election Day in November shows the GOP with a bigger edge.
Better yet:
Gallup's poll released last week showed Republicans leading Democrats in enthusiastic voters by 20-percent.
There seems to be a general agreement that a likely voter models are more predictive than simply using registered voters.
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