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Saturday, October 23, 2010

Newsweek's Creative Polling Outlier Disagrees With All Other Polls Conducted

Generic Congressional Balloting- Enthusiasm Gap

According to the averages using recent polls conducted from Pew Research, Associated Press/GfK, Rasmussen Reports, Gallup (LV Lower Turnout)*, Gallup (LV Higher Turnout)*, FOX News and Reuters/Ipsos polls, the average for the Generic Congressional Ballot shows Republicans with 50.43 percent average and Democrats with 40.86 percent average, spread of 9.58 percent in favor of Republicans.

Dems: 40, 43, 39, 39, 42, 39 and 44- Totaling 286, divided by 7 (Amount of polls)= 40.857 rounded up to 40.86 percent.

Reps: 50, 50, 48, 56, 53, 48 and 48- Totaling 353, divided by 7 (Amount of polls)= 50.428 rounded up to 50.43 percent.

Obama Approval/Disapproval

Barack Obama's approval according tot he averages from Gallup, Rasmussen, NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl, Pew Research, Associated Press/GfK, FOX News and Reuters/Ipsos polls shows Barac Obama with a disapproval average rating of 49.29 percent and his approval rating at 45.14 percent on average.

Disapproval- 48, 54, 49, 45, 50, 47 and 53- Totaling 346, divided by 7 (Amount of polls)= 49.428 percent.

Approval- 43, 45, 47, 46, 49, 43,and 43- Totaling 416, divided by 7 (Amount of polls) = 45.142 percent.

Now Newsweek comes out with a poll claiming Barack Obama's disapproval is at 40 percent and his approval rating is 54 percent and that Democrats are ahead in the generic congressional ballot 48 to 42 percent among registered voters, 48 to 45 percent among likely voters..

Newsweek's poll not only goes against every other poll but also goes against the pattern of polls conducted for months, some even ending a day after Newsweek's end of poll date (Gallup and Rasmussen presidential approval polls)

That is what you call an outlier or some seriously creative polling on the part of Newsweek.

[Update] Democratic leaning pollster/handicapper, Nate silver from FiveThirtyEight shows the GOP now favored for a 50 seat House pickup.

Republican chances of taking over the House are now up to 80 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast model; they had been 75 percent two days ago.

In an average simulation, the model projected that the Republicans will control 230 seats when the new Congress convenes in January; that would reflect a 51-seat gain from their current standing and would be close to the 54-seat gain that they achieved in 1994. This is the first time we have published a forecast putting the Republican over-under line at a number higher than 50 seats.