The pattern is established and continuing now that Gallup is using a likely voter model, which has proven more predictive than simply using all registered voters, and that pattern shows the GOP, among likely voters and Independents, with a double digit lead over Democrats in the generic ballot for congress.Gallup:
Republicans maintain a substantial advantage over Democrats among likely voters in Gallup's generic ballot for Congress -- in both lower- and higher-turnout scenarios -- fueled in part by the GOP's strong showing among independents.
With the majority of Democrats (90%) and the majority of Republicans (90%) stating they will vote for their respective party candidates, Independents will be the deciding factor in the midterm elections.
The Republican advantage among all registered-voter independents is 10 percentage points, 46% vs. 36%, underscoring the Republican tilt among independents even if all registered voters were to turn out. But among the two groups of likely voters, the Republican margin among independents expands to 21 to 25 points.
With only three weeks to go before midterms, there is very little Democrats can do to not only stop this pattern but to turn it around, which perhaps is the reason for their latest Hail Mary attacks on the Chamber of Commerce.
In other polling news, almost half of Obama supporters have given up on him.
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