What it means politically for the 2010 election is explained by MSNBC's First Read:
The retirement of David Obey is a blow to Democrats politically. It puts Obey's Wisconsin seventh-congressional district seat in play for Republicans. Though Republicans like their preferred candidate, Sean Duffy -- a 37-year-old district attorney from Northern Wisconsin and former Real World cast member -- it was a much longer shot with Obey running.
On April 1, 2010, CQ Politics moved Wisconsin from Safe Deocrat to Likely Democrat when Sean Duffy became a contender for the Huose seat Obey holds.
Rep. David R. Obey (D-Wis.), the hard-driving chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, has scarcely faced serious Republican opposition during a House career that has spanned more than 40 years.
But there is evidence that suggests Obey will get a credible GOP challenge this year in his northwestern 7th district — from Sean Duffy, a young county prosecutor whose candidacy has prompted CQ Politics to shift the rating of the Wisconsin 7 race from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic.
The new rating still gives Obey a decisive edge in his campaign to win a 21st full term, but suggests that an upset cannot be ruled out and that the race has the potential to become highly competitive.
Several factors prompt the ratings change, including a challenging political environment for Democrats at the midpoint of President Barack Obama ’s first term – and perhaps even more so for longtime incumbents who face credible GOP opponents.
News of Obey's pending retirement has The Cook Political Report moving Wisconsin from Like Democrat to Toss Up.
Without Appropriations Chair and 20-term Democratic Rep. Dave Obey on the ballot, GOP Ashland County prosecutor Sean Duffy suddenly has a more realistic shot at a seat in Congress than any other reality TV contestant-turned-candidate before him (which, we know, isn’t saying much). In the current political environment, any heavily working-class seat that falls close to the national partisan average (PVI D+3) isn’t the type of open seat Congressional Democrats want to defend. President Bush came within one percent of carrying this seat in 2004.
Republicans need to retake 40 seats in November to regain control of the House and Wisconsin just became competitive for the GOP.
2010 is shaping up to be a very interesting election year where the stakes are high.
Control of Congress for the GOP would mean that Obama and Democrats cannot simply jam through any bill that is on their agenda without bipartisan support and would force the White House, the Senate and Congress to work together, in a bipartisan manner, to get anything done.
It would bring some balance into the equation.
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