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Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Dems Busted On Paying For Independent's Robocalls In New Jersey

When news first came out that the Democratic Party was paying for robocalls promoting independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett in New Jersey, the state party’s chairman, Joe Cryan, denied it.

Political blogs were all over the story, then Big supplied proof, via the address mentioned in the robocall for the Independent candidate being the same as the headquarters of the New Jersey Democratic State Committee.

Here you can see that the address mentioned in the call is the headquarters of the New Jersey Democratic State Committee.

It speaks volumes that the Democratic party in New Jersey feels the best use of their resources is to promote a third-party’s candidate instead of their own.

After that, the Democratic State Committee finally admitted to paying for the calls, claiming the party chairman wasn't "aware" of the fact when he made his denials.

Before the Democrats owned up to it, Daggett media advisor Bill Hillsman said the call might be a Republican trick to generate a sympathetic newspaper story.

"Yesterday, Jon Corzine's party boss Joe Cryan said that 'No, zero, nada, no,' when asked if he had anything to do with the robocalls," said Kevin Roberts, a spokesman for the Republican State Committee. "Today, it's clear that Cryan is an outright liar. Corzine's party boss knows what we know - Jon Corzine's record is so dreadful that they feel a need to try to trick voters into a second term."

In other robocall news, the Democratic State Committee is calling voters with a recording of President Obama imploring residents to “get out and vote on Tuesday, and vote for my friend and your governor, Jon Corzine.”

The Star-Ledger has audio of the call on the website.

Obama came out for Corzine to try to drag him over the finish line and the Democratic state party decided if Corzine didn't win despite Obama's support, then they would rather see an Independent in that spot than a Republican.

That is called hedging your bets.

In the meantime, Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight has finally made the call on who is favored, using 15 set questions and his point system as he concludes:

The Odds: Obviously, anybody's race, but I'd make Christie about the 4:3 favorite. If Christie wins, it will probably be because of greater enthusiasm among his voters and a slightly more well-rounded close to his campaign. If Corzine wins, it will probably be because of his institutional and organizational advantages in getting his base to the polls.


Another race people are watching closely is the special election for NY-23 between Republican candidate Doug Hoffman and Democratic candidate Bill Owens, and has an update on that.

We got two new pieces of polling news last night from New York's 23rd District. The first is the one and only survey from Public Policy Polling (PPP), a firm that does automated surveys for Democratic candidates but also conducts and releases surveys in high profile races like NY-23 as a marketing tool. PPP's poll, also the first conducted since Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava withdrew on Saturday morning, forecasts a different outcome than previous surveys, including the Siena Research Institute poll conducted last week: They show Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman with a huge lead over Democrat Bill Owens -- 17 points (51% to 34%) on a three-way matchup that includes Scozzafava, whose name will remain on the ballot), 16 points on a question that only asked about Hoffman and Owens (54% to 38%).

The other major state being watched is Virginia where Republican Bob McConnell has taken an impressive double digit lead over Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds.


In Virginia, former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell, a Republican, has a double-digit lead in opinion polls over Democrat Creigh Deeds, 51, (pronounced Cree), a state senator. The race has centered on taxes and transportation, and McDonnell, well-armed with campaign money, has run a series of television ads pointing out conflicting statements Deeds made about whether he would raise taxes. McDonnell, 55, was dealt a blow, but not a fatal one, by The Washington Post's report that a graduate school thesis he wrote when he was 34 underscored his opposition to abortion and supported tax policies that favored heterosexual families. Deeds' focus on the McDonnell thesis dominated his campaign long after the flap had disappeared from the headlines and he was seen as being overly negative. Two appearances on Deeds' behalf by Obama have had little effect on the electorate.

Those are the states to be watching.

Stay tuned...