According to the IBD/TIPP poll conducted in early September, 53 percent of Independents believe someone new should be President in 2012, with only 38 percent thinking he should be reelected.In 2008, Independents favored Obama by a 52 percent to 44 percent margin.
IBD/TIPP also finds that Barack Obama is still liked personally but majorities disapprove of his policies, and believes he lacks the experience needed to be an effective President.
On the other hand, 62% disapprove of his policies, and by 63% to 35% they think he lacks the experience to be an effective president. A majority of independents (51%) do not believe that he is someone they would be proud to have as president; only 42% would be proud.
Other findings:
80 percent of Independents believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, higher than the national average of what all Americans believe which is 72 percent saying America is on the wrong track.
Only 15% give Obama an A or B for his handling of the economy, 16% give him good grades for managing the federal budget, and just 12% see him favorably for creating jobs and economic growth.
Independents alone will not determine whether Barack Obama is reelected but they are an important voting bloc for any presidential candidate or incumbent President and could be the tipping point factor in 2012.
Add to that the loss in numbers for Barack Obama most supportive voting bloc, African Americans, whom he carried 98 percent in 2008 and 83 percent just five months ago, which is down to 58 percent now according to a Washington Post/ABC News survey and Obama's hopes for reelection just took a massive hit.
Perhaps telling African Americans to "Stop complainin'. Stop grumblin'. Stop cryin'," wasn't his brightest move when they hold a 16 percent unemployment rating which is far above the national average, which is 9.1 percent.
The Hill has some other concerning numbers for Obama:
• Before Obama’s speech to Congress and the nation — watched by 34 million families — his job approval averaged 44 percent. Now it averages 43 percent, according to realclearpolitics.com. He deployed his ultimate weapon — a nationally televised speech to Congress — and came up empty.
• The president’s personal favorability has taken a big hit even as his job approval has shown no gain. The Post/ABC poll has his rating down to 47 percent, the first time in his presidency it has dropped below 50. Clearly, the spectacle of a class warrior leading the country is grating on most Americans. Usually, despite drops in his job approval, his personal ratings have stayed high. Not anymore. The most recent New York Times/CBS poll had his favorability actually lagging behind his job approval by 4 points — the first time it has ever done so in their polling.
• Young people, the core of Obama’s base, now hold equally favorable and unfavorable views of the president they once adored. And his favorability among self-described “liberal” Democrats has also dropped. The percentage of those who say they are strongly favorable has fallen from 69 percent in April to 52 percent now. For a president whose reelection chances hinge on his ability to turn out his base, these numbers are depressing indeed.
Obama’s advisers likely think that fervent appeals to liberal views, including class warfare, are the best way to repair the gaping holes that are now appearing in his political base. But this is a conviction born of instinct and intuition, not generated by polling data. The fact is that as the president has ratcheted up his class warfare rhetoric, his personal popularity has fallen and his job approval has edged down slightly.
Barring a miraculous turn around in high unemployment numbers and a stalling economy, Obama's reelection chances will continue to go downhill.
His recent class warfare rhetoric coupled with his condescending insults to the black community gives him the optics of swinging aimlessly from one end of the pendulum to the other in an attempt to play to his far left liberal base one moment then play to Independents the next, making him look indecisive, inexperienced and disconnected from voting Americans.
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