Everyone but the Democrat leadership agrees that the Republicans will make huge gains today but the question is how big will the tide be? The concensus is that the Republicans will gain 60 seats or more. Because a rising tide does lift all boats, Marston Chronicles is predicting that the Republicans will gain a net 95 seats resulting in 273 seats for the Republicans and 162 for the Democrats. This will be the biggest margin for the Republicans in over 80 years. The Democrat leadership including President Obama has managed to royally annoy a wide swath of the voting public and this is the inevitable result. Their arrogance and condescending attitude has alienated everyone but their base supporters. This is not a victory for the Republican Party but rather a defeat for the Democrat Party.
A wise Democrat leadership would receive this message and change course towards the middle but we doubt very much that this will happen. The Democrat leadership is composed of ideologues rather than politicians. Pushing an ideological agenda that the public does not support is a recipe for a political disaster.
In the Senate, the Republicans will wind up with between 49 and 52 seats. The most likely outcome is a tie in the Senate with Biden providing the tie breaking vote but there is a 50-50 chance the Republicans will gain control. In the governorships, the Republicans will most likely wind up with 32 states for a net gain of 8.
We have picked which House seats which we believe will wind up in Republican hands. Some of our picks for the Republicans will not happen and likewise some of our picks for the Democrats will not happen either, but on balance the outcome should be a 95 seat gain for the Republicans give or take a few seats. Here are our picks:
| LIKELY DEMOCRATIC | LEAN DEMOCRATIC | DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP |
| DIST. | REPRESENTATIVE | PROB | | CA-36 | Jane Harman | 11.1% | | CA-53 | Susan Davis | 17.6% | | FL-19 | Ted Deutch | 8.2% | | IL-9 | Jan Schakowsky | 3.6% | | LA-2 | Joseph Cao | REP | | MN-8 | James Oberstar | 9.5% | | NY-21 | Paul Tonko | 11.2% | | NY-28 | Louise Slaughter | 15.5% | | NC-1 | George Butterfield | 3.5% | | WI-2 | Tammy Baldwin | 11.4% | 9 DEMOCRATS
1 REPUBLICAN | | DIST. | REPRESENTATIVE | PROB | | CA-23 | Lois Capps | 32.1% | | CA-27 | Brad Sherman | 20.8% | | CA-51 | Bob Filner | 37.8% | | CO-2 | Jared Polis | 24.5% | | DE-AL | Open (Castle) | REP | | FL-3 | Corrine Brown | 31.3% | | MA-2 | Richard Neal | 31.6% | | MI-15 | John Dingell | 36.4% | | MN-4 | Betty McCollum | 20.8% | | OR-4 | Peter DeFazio | 33.6% | | TN-5 | Jim Cooper | 38.1% | | TX-28 | Henry Cuellar | 39.1% | | UT-2 | Jim Matheson | 37.9% | | VA-8 | James Moran | 24.2% | | WV-3 | Nick Rahall | 21.7% | 14 DEMOCRATS
1 REPUBLICAN | | DIST. | REPRESENTATIVE | PROB | | AZ-7 | Raul Grijalva | 44.9% | | AR-4 | Mike Ross | 43.4% | | CA-10 | John Garamendi | 42.0% | | CA-18 | Dennis Cardoza | 46.9% | | CA-39 | Linda Sanchez | 42.8% | | CA-47 | Loretta Sanchez | 42.9% | | CT-1 | John Larson | 40.2% | | CT-2 | Joe Courtney | 40.3% | | IL-10 | Open (Kirk) | REP | | IN-7 | Andre Carson | 43.9% | | IA-1 | Bruce Braley | 44.6% | | KY-3 | John Yarmuth | 47.7% | | ME-2 | Michael Michaud | 49.4% | | MD-2 | Dutch Ruppersberger | 42.2% | | MA-3 | James McGovern | 45.5% | | MA-4 | Barney Frank | 41.5% | | MS-2 | Bennie Thompson | 46.0% | | MO-3 | Russ Carnahan | 41.4% | | MO-4 | Ike Skelton | 47.8% | | NJ-6 | Frank Pallone, Jr. | 45.4% | | NJ-12 | Rush Holt | 42.4% | | NM-3 | Ben Lujan | 48.4% | | NY-2 | Steve Israel | 44.7% | | NY-4 | Carolyn McCarthy | 48.4% | | NY-13 | Michael McMahon | 48.8% | | NY-22 | Maurice Hinchey | 47.5% | | NY-27 | Brian Higgins | 43.2% | | NC-13 | Brad Miller | 41.2% | | OH-10 | Dennis Kucinich | 43.5% | | OH-17 | Tim Ryan | 40.4% | | OR-1 | David Wu | 40.1% | | PA-13 | Allyson Schwartz | 47.7% | | PA-17 | Tim Holden | 42.9% | | RI-1 | Open (Kennedy) | 49.3% | | TX-15 | Ruben Hinojosa | 43.3% | | TX-25 | Lloyd Doggett | 40.2% | | WA-1 | Jay Inslee | 44.5% | | WA-6 | Norm Dicks | 45.6% | | WI-3 | Ron Kind | 45.4% |
37 DEMOCRATS
1 REPUBLICAN |
| REPUBLICAN TOSS UP | LEAN REPUBLICAN | LIKELY REPUBLICAN |
| DIST. | REPRESENTATIVE | PROB | | CA-20 | Jim Costa
| 59.1% | | CO-7 | Ed Perlmutter | 58.0% | | CT-5 | Chris Murphy | 58.4% | | ID-1 | Walt Minnick | 51.4% | | IL-8 | Melissa Bean
| 51.5% | | IN-2 | Joe Donnelly
| 58.5% | | IA-3 | Leonard Boswell | 59.5% | | KY-6 | Ben Chandler | 51.7% | | ME-1 | Chellie Pingree | 53.7% | | MA-6 | James Tierney | 52.4% | | MA-10 | Open (Delahunt)
| 58.8% | | NH-2 | Open (Hodes) | 51.1% | | NM-1 | Martin Heinrich | 50.3% | | NY-1 | Timothy Bishop | 56.5% | | NY-4 | Carolyn McCarthy | 52.4% | | NY-25 | Daniel Maffei | 50.7% | | NC-4 | David Price | 51.3% | | NC-7 | Mike Mcintyre | 59.2% | | NC-8 | Larry Kissell | 56.9% | | OH-6 | Charles Wilson | 54.2% | | PA-4 | Jason Altmire | 54.1% | | TN-4 | Lincoln Davis | 55.8% | | TX-27 | Solomon Ortiz | 59.7% | | VA-9 | Frederick Boucher | 55.7% | | WA-9 | Adam Smith | 53.4% | | WV-1 | Open (Mollohan) | 53.6% | 26 DEMOCRATS
| | DIST. | REPRESENTATIVE | PROB | | AZ-1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | 77.9% | | AZ-5 | Harry Mitchell | 79.2% | | AZ-8 | Gabrielle Giffords | 75.4% | | AR-1 | Open (Barry) | 77.4% | | CA-11 | Gerald McNerney | 72.1% | | CO-3 | John Salazar | 79.9% | | CT-4 | Jim Himes | 63.4% | | FL-2 | Allen Boyd | 74.6% | | FL-22 | Ron Klein | 67.7% | | FL-24 | Suzanne Kosmas | 77.7% | | GA-2 | Sanford Bishop | 60.7% | | GA-8 | Jim Marshall
| 67.6% | | GA-12 | John Barrow | 62.4% | | HI-1 | Charles Dijou (R) | 61.5% | | IL-14 | Bill Foster | 66.2% | | IL-17 | Phil Hare | 60.6% | | IN-9 | Baron Hill | 77.9% | | IA-2 | Dave Loebsack | 64.1% | | MA-5 | Nikki Tsongas | 63.0% | | MI-1 | Open (Stupak) | 75.1% | | MI-9 | Gary Peters | 64.6% | | MN-1 | Tim Walz | 61.6% | | MS-1 | Travis Childers | 72.0% | | MS-4 | Gene Taylor | 61.3% | | NJ-3 | John Adler | 74.7% | | NM-2 | Harry Teague | 78.8% | | NY-19 | John Hall | 64.4% | | NY-20 | Scott Murphy | 71.5% | | NY-23 | William Owens | 79.5% | | NY-24 | Michael Arcuri | 63.0% | | NC-2 | Bob Etheridge | 61.4% | | NC-11 | Heath Shuler | 61.3% | | ND-AL | Earl Pomeroy | 73.2% | | OH-13 | Betty Sutton | 62.7% | | OH-16 | John Boccieri | 77.8% | | OH-18 | Zach Space | 65.3% | | OR-5 | Kurt Schrader | 60.7% | | PA-7 | Open (Sestak) | 70.1% | | PA-10 | Christopher Carney | 69.2% | | PA-12 | Mark Critz | 63.5% | | SC-5 | John Spratt | 63.4% | | SD-AL | Stephanie Sandlin | 72.4% | | TX-23 | Cyro Rodriguez | 68.1% | | VA-2 | Glenn Nye | 79.3% | | VA-11 | Gerald Connolly | 62.7% | | WA-2 | Rick Larsen | 66.4% | | WA-3 | Open (Baird) | 78.9% | | WI-7 | Open (Obey) | 68.8% | 47 DEMOCRATS
1 REPUBLICAN | | DIST. | REPRESENTATIVE | PROB | | CO-4 | Betsy Markey | 82.0% | | FL-8 | Alan Grayson | 96.0% | | IL-11 | Debbie Halvorson | 81.4% | | IN-8 | Open (Ellsworth) | 88.2% | | KS-3 | Open (Moore) | 97.6% | | MI-7 | Mark Schauer | 92.8% | | NV-3 | Dina Titus | 88.1% | | NH-1 | Carol Shea-Porter | 90.2% | | OH-1 | Steven Driehaus | 92.6% | | PA-8 | Patrick Murphy | 88.7% | | PA-11 | Paul Kanjorski | 88.8% | | TX-17 | Chester Edwards | 91.3% | | WI-8 | Steve Kagen | 83.6% | 13 DEMOCRATS | SAFE REPUBLICAN | | DIST. | REPRESENTATIVE | PROB | | AL-2 | Bobby Bright | 100.7% | | AR-2 | Open (Synder) | 102.0% | | LA-3 | Open (Melancon) | 113.2% | | MD-1 | Frank Kratovil | 107.9% | | NY-29 | Open (Massa) | 110.9% | | OH-15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | 105.5% | | PA-3 | Kathy Dahlkemper | 104.9% | | TN-6 | Open (Gordon) | 110.0% | | TN-8 | Open (Tanner) | 104.7% | | VA-5 | Tom Perriello | 109.5% |
10 DEMOCRATS |
Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member
