Custom Search

Monday, November 01, 2010

Final Polling Shows GOP Lead Widens To Unprecedented Proportions


A few polling organizations have conducted their last round of polling before tomorrow's midterm election and according to Gallup there is a 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters that is "unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations."

The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.

The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.

White House Press Secretary previously stated that the midterm elections would be about "local issues" and not about Barack Obama. Obama told a crowd that he was not on the ballot but his agenda was, they were only partially right, in that Obama's actual name and specific legislation is not on the ballot, but a small plurality will still be casting their vote with his name and his agenda in mind, according to another Gallup poll.

"By 38% to 24%, Tuesday's voters are more likely to be using their vote for Congress to send a message that they oppose President Obama than to signal that they support him, while 37% say they will not be sending a message with their vote."


Given four factors to consider when choosing a congressional candidate, 41% of voters this year cite national issues, making them the top factor. Another 23% choose the character and experience of a candidate, 21% choose local and state issues, and 12% choose the candidate's political party.

Gallup's Bottom Line:

If Republicans win the majority in the U.S. House on Tuesday, 2010 will join 2006 and 1994 as the most recent elections in which power changed hands in Congress. In addition to the indication of strong Republican gains provided by the generic congressional ballot results, several broader voter attitudes point to an impending change of power:

More voters currently say their vote is a message against the sitting president rather than for him, a pattern also seen in 2006, but not in 2002 and 1998. This question was not asked in 1994.

Voters backing candidates from the minority party (currently Republicans) are more likely to say their vote is mainly a vote against the other party than are voters who are backing the majority party's candidates (currently Democrats). In 1994 and 2006, the winning party was the one more voters supported as a vote against the other party.

Voters are more likely to say the country will be better off with the Republicans in charge than the Democrats. In each of the last two midterms, 2006 and 2002, the party leading on this won the majority of U.S. House seats.

Public Policy Polling reports results fro Pennsylvania showing an "inordinate number of Democrats unhappy with Barack Obama- and voting Republican because of it."

Generally Republicans favor Republicans as Democrats favor Democrats and Independents who are known as swing voters make the difference, but with some Democrats planning to vote Republican as well, gains could be higher than previously projected for Republicans in the House.

Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows a majority of Swing Voters, 52 percent, stating they will vote Republican in tomorrow's elections.

One Democratic pollster, David Beattie, making it clear "This race is all about President Obama."

Further NBC News/Wall Street Journal results from their final polling push, states "a plurality of all registered voters say it would be a “good thing” if Republicans were in charge of both the U.S. House and U.S. Senate; and almost two-thirds — including about half of Democrats — want to see a significant amount of change in the way President Barack Obama has been leading the country."

Pew Research headlines with "GOP Likely to Capture Control of House," sub header states that "Record Republican Engagement Drives High Turnout Forecast."

Pew Research Center's final 2010 pre-election survey finds the Republican Party continuing to hold a solid lead in preferences for Tuesday's midterm elections. The poll, conducted Oct. 27-30 among 2,373 registered voters, including 1,809 voters considered the most likely to vote, shows that 48% of likely voters say they will vote for the Republican in their district, compared with 42% who favor the Democratic candidate.

These results suggest little trend in voter opinion nationwide and they track results of a Pew Research Center poll conducted two weeks ago. That survey found the GOP holding a 50%-to-40% lead among likely voters. This is the third consecutive poll since September finding a significant Republican lead among likely voters.

With the final polls out, results reported on and discussed heavily, The Politico reports that Democrats are now simply waiting to see how bad the losses are.

Now, for Democratic consultants and campaign officials who have plotted and strategized for months to preserve the embattled House majority, there’s nothing left to do but sit and wait for the expected horrors of Election Day to unfold.

There is nearly uniform consensus among Democratic campaign professionals that the House is gone — the only question, it seems, is how many seats they will lose.

While few will say so on the record for fear of alienating party officials or depressing turnout, every one of nearly a dozen Democratic House consultants and political strategists surveyed expect a GOP majority to be elected Tuesday — the consensus was that Democrats would lose somewhere between 50 and 60 seats.

A senior party consultant who was on the low end with his predictions said the party would lose between 40 and 50 seats. On the high end, one Democratic consultant said losses could number around 70 seats.

All spoke to the grimness of the mood.

“It sucks,” said Dave Beattie, a Florida-based Democratic pollster who is working on a slate of competitive House races and who acknowledges that the lower congressional chamber is lost. “I’m resigned to the fact that it sucks.”

While there was optimistic talk within party circles early this month that the electoral environment was improving for the party, the operatives said those conversations don’t take place anymore.

“If some Democratic consultant told you they are feeling better, they must have dropped some heavy drugs,” said a senior pollster who is working for candidates in competitive races. “It’s hard.”

Polls tell us Republicans are poised for massive gains and turnout is expected to be high, but the only thing that counts is the people that go to the polls and actually cast that vote tomorrow or that have already voted or sent in their ballot.

Independents and Republicans alike cannot sit back and just assume the GOP is going to win big, they cannot look at the projections and sit it out thinking someone else will do it, they must get out and vote.

I sent in my early ballot last week.... have you voted? If not, please vote tomorrow.

Send a message to Washington, they work for us and if they ignore us, disrespect us, we can and will fire them.