From The Marston Chronicles
The last time the Republicans took control of the House was 1994. The Democrats regained control in 2006. Obviously there should have been some signs showing these dramatic changes were taking place. There was a definite sign of what was going to happen and that was what the generic congressional ballot polls were showing. The generic ballot results are obtained by the pollsters asking some variant of this question:
The differences reach out and grab you. So what does this mean for 2010? A graph like 2006 means the Democrats will retain control of the House but one like 1994 means the Republicans will regain control. Keep in mind that we are a year away from the election and that makes predicting the final result much more difficult but it does give us some clue as to what will happen. So what has the generic ballot been saying lately?The last time the Republicans took control of the House was 1994. The Democrats regained control in 2006. Obviously there should have been some signs showing these dramatic changes were taking place. There was a definite sign of what was going to happen and that was what the generic congressional ballot polls were showing. The generic ballot results are obtained by the pollsters asking some variant of this question:
"If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your congressional district?"The generic ballot has been shown to be an accurate predictor of the eventual vote in midterm elections. The link takes you to a Gallup table proving this point. To illustrate what this is all about, here is the Gallup graph of the generic ballot for 1994:
| Date | Republicans | Democrats | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/5/09 - 12/7/09 | 44.2 | 43.4 | Republicans +0.8 |
| 11/5/09 - 11/16/09 | 45.0 | 44.5 | Republicans +0.5 |
| 10/29/09 - 11/8/09 | 42.5 | 45.5 | Democrats +3.0 |
| 10/1/09 - 10/18/09 | 39.67 | 43.0 | Democrats +3.33 |
| 9/10/09 - 9/20/09 | 38.67 | 41.33 | Democrats +2.67 |
| 8/20/09 - 9/1/09 | 41.0 | 42.5 | Democrats +1.5 |
| 7/10/09 - 7/26/09 | 42.25 | 43.5 | Democrats +1.25 |
| 6/4/09 - 6/29/09 | 35.0 | 40.0 | Democrats +5.0 |
| 5/25/09 - 6/1/09 | 36.0 | 44.0 | Democrats +8.0 |
| 4/20/09 - 4/27/09 | 35.33 | 39.33 | Democrats +4.0 |
| 3/10/09 - 3/29/09 | 38.5 | 42.25 | Democrats +3.75 |
| 1/21/09 - 1/25/09 | 28.5 | 44 | Democrats +15.5 |
| 10/20/08 - 11/2/08 | 38.83 | 47.5 | Democrats +8.67 |
As you can see the Democrats were home free from the last election through the middle of November because it was all Democrat and looking like the 2006 graph. All of a sudden the public disapproval of health care started showing up and the Republicans pulled into the lead. In 2006, the Republicans never pulled ahead. Suddenly, it is beginning to look like a 1994 year and not a 2006 year. If this keeps up, the Republicans will regain control of the House. Only time will tell if this will hold up.
