That is the conventional wisdom. The problem is that while it might be conventional it is not necessarily wisdom. The turnout in the primary held on December 8th was extremely low and there is no reason to expect the general election turnout to be any better. In Massachusetts, the independents decide general elections. The registration figures for the 2008 general election show that there were 1,559,464 Democrats, 490,259 Republicans but 2,141,878 independents. Scott Brown has two opponents, Democrat Massachusetts Attorney General, Martha Coakley, and the Liberty Party candidate, Joe Kennedy. Coakley survived a four way Democrat primary by getting 47% of the votes. Brown won the Republican Party with 89% of the votes.
There is no reason why Scott Brown could not win this election if he had enough money and support. It would appear that the National Republican Party is not putting millions of dollars into this race like it should be doing, but then the national folks are well known for dropping the ball. The big question is why the conservative activists are not behind Scott Brown like they were behind Doug Hoffman in the NY-23 congressional race. One would think that at least making a try to capture that 60th Democrat vote would be in order, but apparently not. Update: The guys at Hillbuzz are now on board and so is Hot Air.
You can do your part to help by going to www.brownforussenate.com and contribute or volunteer to call from home. Clearly this a real sleeper race and maybe, just maybe, even without much help, Scott Brown can pull this off just because everyone is just sitting back and waiting for the Democrat candidate to be crowned. Imagine what a message his victory would send to not only the Obama-Reid-Pelosi crowd but the mainstream media as well. Ted Kennedy's old seat (and Jack Kennedy's too) goes to a Republican. Oh my!
Scott Brown for U. S. Senate