The AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.
Clinton led McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The latest survey showed the New York senator with 48 percent support to McCain's 45 percent. Factoring in the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, Clinton and McCain are statistically tied.
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have (alternate URL due to articles being removed after time lapses)lost support and John McCain has picked up support as well as cross over Democratic voters that say if the candidate of their choice does not win the Democratic nomination, they will vote for the Republican candidate, John McCain.
Despite all the conflict surrounding Obama, the Democratic contest is unchanged from February with Obama at 46 percent and Clinton at 43 percent. But the heated primary is creating divisions among the electorate — many Clinton and Obama supporters say they would rather vote for McCain if their chosen Democrat doesn't win the nomination.
About a quarter of Obama supporters say they'll vote for McCain if Clinton is the Democratic nominee. About a third of Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain if it's Obama.
Against McCain, Obama lost ground among women — from 57 percent in February to 47 percent in April. Obama dropped 12 points among women under 45, 14 points among suburban women and 15 points among married women.
He also lost nine points or more among voters under 35, high-income households, whites, Catholics, independents, Southerners, people living in the Northeast and those with a high school education or less.
It is also interesting that these numbers show so well for John McCain when the Initial Party Identification of those polled show that 32 percent of respondents identified as Democrats compared to only 25 of those polled were Republicans and 22 percent were independents, with 19 percent being being none of the above.
With the plurality of respondents being listed as Democrats, one would assume the numbers would favor Democrats and cause McCain's numbers to be lower, yet that isn't what the data showed in that particular poll.
(IF “DEMOCRAT” TO Q.2a, Q.2b ASKED. IF “REPUBLICAN” TO Q.2a, Q.2c ASKED. IF “INDEPENDENT” or
“NONE OF THESE” TO Q.2a, Q.2d ASKED. RESULTS SHOWN IN SUMMARY BELOW.)
2b. Do you lean strongly or only moderately toward the Democratic Party?
2c. Do you lean strongly or only moderately toward the Republican Party?
2d. Do your beliefs tend to lean more toward the Democrats or the Republicans?
Strongly Democrat 20
Moderately Democrat 12
Lean Democrat 16
Strongly Republican 12
Moderately Republican 13
Lean Republican 12
Independent 13
(DK/NS) 2
Total Republicans 37
Total Democrats 49
Results found here. (6 page PDF file)
The internal polling for the RNC also shows John McCain with a solid lead over both his potential general election rivals.
McCain is leading Barack Obama 48 percent to 42 percent and Hillary Clinton 51 percent to 40 percent according to RNC polling done late last month.
Last but not least, despite Condoleezza Rice saying she has no desire for the position of Vice President, CNN reports that a poll conducted by the Marist College and WNBC, suggests that a John McCain/Condoleezza Rice would "beat the Democratic ticket in the bluest of states", New York.
In a new poll conducted by Marist College and WNBC, a McCain-Rice ticket would beat a ticket that includes both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in New York — a state that reliably votes for the Democratic candidate. (In 2004, John Kerry beat President Bush there by nearly 20 points. In 2000, the margin between Al Gore and Bush was an even higher 25 points.)
But should McCain and Rice team up, the poll suggests the two Republicans would carry New York, defeating a Clinton-Obama ticket by 3 points (49-46 percent) and an Obama-Clinton ticket by 5 points (49-44 percent.)
Once the Democratic candidates and their supporters stop their infighting between Obama and Clinton groups, these numbers are bound to change and some of those cross over voters might, indeed, vote for John McCain if their particular candidate is not chosen, others will not and will vote for their party's candidate, so these numbers might be a snapshot as of now, but they are expected to change.
In the meantime, John McCain is taking advantage of the infighting to use the time wisely and define himself now, garner his support and unite the Republican party.
In politics a week can seem like a year and with months to go before the November general election, that can seem like a decade so these snapshots we are getting from the polls should be considered just a guide to public opinion, but no more than that.
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