Monthly troop deaths have dropped by about two-thirds since the summer of 2007.
For the first time since the surge began, public opinion shows, via Pew Research, that 53 percent of Americans now believe the U.S. can succeed in achieving its goals, in Iraq. That figure has risen from 42 percent in September of 2007.
48 percent also believe the war is going "very well" or "fairly well", which is an 18 percent "surge" from the previous poll done in September.
A Politico article also points out that the poll numbers, although not the same exact figures, are showing the uptick for support from other organizations that run polls or surveys.
CBS News shows that public opinion of the war is better than at any point since August of 2006, according tho their figures, 43 percent of respondents say the war is going "well", while not matching the figures of Pew, that is double the level of last Junes figures for CBS.
Military Progress.
Pew Research began tracking the public perception of U.S. Progress in Iraq in December of 2005 and for the first time more respondents say that the United States is making progress in reducing civilian casualties than those that say it is losing ground. 46 percent believe progress is being made and 40 percent think it is losing ground.
Similarly, 49 percent now say the United States is making progress in defeating the insurgents, while just 35 percent say it is losing ground.
A clear majority, 57 percent, say the U.S. Military is making progress in training the Iraqi military forces and only 29 percent think they are losing ground.
The only area of the poll to which a negative plurality still exists is on the question of preventing civil war between various religious and ethnic groups. 35 percent of respondents believe progress is being made in that key area while 49 percent believe ground is being lost. Even though the plurality is negative, Pew shows that those numbers are continuing to rise as well. As of February 2007, only 18 percent believed progress was being made on that front and that number has risen by 17 percentage points. In February of 2007 the 68 percent of respondents believed that ground was being lost and that number has declined by the same 17 percentage points.
Political progress.
A plurality of 49 percent says the U.S. is making progress in establishing a democracy in Iraq compared to 40 percent that say it is losing ground. According to Pew Research, this is the first time since 2006 that a plurality sees progress on this measure.
Opinion by party affiliation.
In addition, somewhat more Democrats now than a year ago believe that U.S. troops should remain in Iraq. Currently, 81% of Republicans favor keeping troops in Iraq, the highest percentage recorded since the beginning of 2004. Nearly half of independents (49%) agree, the highest percentage in more than a year. And while only 27% of Democrats hold this view, this is also higher than it has been since January 2007.
What this means politically for the 2008 November elections.
According to the CBS figures, (13 page PDF file) almost half the American voters believe John McCain (48 percent), the Republican candidate, will be an "effective commander in chief", while less than 25 percent said the same of the Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. (23 percent for Obama, 20 percent for Clinton)
Furthermore, CBS finds that a "clear majority" (56 percent) were “confident” that McCain could “handle an international crisis”, Obama received 47 percent and Clitnon 39 percent.
Democrats’ resolute support for the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces may soon position them at odds with independent voters, in particular, a constituency they need to retake the White House.
Half of self-identified independents polled now believe the United States should “keep troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized,” according to polling data assembled by Pew at Politico’s request.
Michael O’Hanlon, a national security adviser at the Brookings Institution, asks, "How could Democrats possibly hand McCain a better issue than to let him run on his record of advocating a robust U.S. presence in Iraq with all the positive battlefield news that is filtering out of that country?"
Interestingly enough, even though views for the war have largely varied according to party affiliation, Democratic supporters still, by and large, want the troops brought home as soon as possible without regard to conditions on the ground, but for the first time 29 percent of Democrats now support keeping troops in Iraq, that number has risen from 21 percent last summer.
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