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Monday, November 05, 2012

CNN Poll Can't Even Get An Obama Lead With An 11 Percent Democratic Advantage In Sample

By Susan Duclos

CNN headlines with "Dead heat between Obama and Romney" announcing breathlessly that each candidate receives 49 percent support in their latest poll.

That is a three point gain for Romney since CNN's previous poll.

Good news for Romney, right?

Here is better news for Team Romney.  The CNN poll that shows a "dead heat" sampled 11 percent more Democrats than Republicans and 12 percent more Democrats than Independents, and still couldn't get Obama ahead.

Yet there is something odd--and even ridiculous--in the poll's sample: of the 693 likely voters in the total sample of 1,010 adults polled, "41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans."

In other words, the poll is a D+11 outlier. It presents a picture of an electorate that is far more pro-Obama than it was in the historic 2008 election.

Perhaps it is this type of result that had CNN anchor Candy Crowley flustered enough to refer to Romney as "President Romney."