By Susan Duclos
Bounces come and go but looking at the numbers in polling data from before the conventions, which should settle back down in about a week, the reason for such a close neck and neck race between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama among likely voters, which is the model polling organizations start using as elections near because it is more predictive, is that this November, voters will have to decide on whether to vote for who they personally like more or who they believe is more competent to handle economic growth and job creation.
Likability Versus Competence
I am continually amazed when I see Republicans ask 'why is it so close" when Obama is doing such a bad job.
So, Conservatives, Republicans, listen up, the answer is easy.
Obama has presided over the "weakest" and "feeblest" recovery since the Great Depression.
Polling
shows that Obama is likable, but the public gives him bad grades for
his job performance and utterly horrendous markings for his economic job performance. 53 percent of voters disapprove of Obama's job performance on the economy. That numbers is 59 percent among independent voters. (That is all registered, a likely voter model would undoubtedly show worse numbers for Obama)
Romney on the other hand, holds a
"significant advantage" when it comes to managing the economy, reducing
the federal budget deficit and creating jobs, but his likability ratings
aren't as good as Obama's. (Source- USA Today/Gallup poll)
As a rule of thumb, usually elections are decided by the issues of who voters trust to be competent and
likable, but in November 2012, voters who are not party faithfuls,
meaning won't vote Democrat or Republican just because of the D or R
after their name, are going to have to decide on whether to elect the
person they trust to be more competent on economic issues or the person they find more likable.
The
division of the two main factors, trust of competence and likability,
that generally decide an election, is one of the reasons why polls using a likely voter model , are showing Mitt Romney and Barack Obama neck and neck.
As explained yesterday,
Obama has hammered Romney with campaign ads and attacks for months on
end and Romney has just started his massive campaign ad push against
Obama, leaving Romney positioned well heading into the last weeks before
the November election.
I see a headline today from ABC News saying that more people would rather have dinner with Barack Obama than with Mitt Romney.
Seriously???????
How about someone ask who they would trust to pay the damn dinner bill!!!!
Republicans and Conservatives- Instead of wasting countless hours bemoaning the fact that the race is close among likely voters, how about using those countless hours to relentlessly remind voters that unemployment has been over 8 percent for 43 straight months under Obama, that 368,000 people left the workforce last month putting labor participation at all time low under Obama, that food stamp usage and poverty levels are at an all time high under Obama, that gas prices are double what they were when Obama took office, that our national deficit has hit $16 trillion under Obama, etc...
Every minute spent asking why, could be a minute spent explaining why competence should trump likability in November 2012.
[Update] An additional thought here- In another Washington Post/ABC News poll, 72 percent of voters said Obama's handling of the economy will be a “major factor” in their vote this November.
Can we please spend more time reminding that 72 percent about Obama's handling of the economy?
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