Consider the months on end where Barack Obama outspent Mitt Romney in campaign advertising, throwing everything but the kitchen sink at him and barely moving Romney's poll numbers, while Romney spent months outraising Obama and saving up most his money for the final lap of the race, which is now, a little less than two months away.
For months reports have come out showing Barack Obama has been spending more than he brought in and for the first time in August, Mitt Romney has done the same, the difference is Romney has been hoarding much of his money, leaving him with an acknowledged cash-on-hand advantage against Obama and after officially taking the nomination at the republican convention, now has access to more from the RNC.
In the last week Romney has spent massively on a campaign ad push in eight key swing states, Nevada, Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Virginia and Massachusetts, the last one representing TV markets in New Hampshire, all targeting local issues for that particular state with 15 separate campaign videos. Recent reports show Romney also adding Wisconsin to his prospects with television ads going up.
Then we have the polls.
TWS took the non-partisan polls listed at Real Clear Politics, which used the likely voter models, and the numbers for Romney look better than the media has been reporting. It is important to note that likely voter polls are more predictive of actual outcomes, which is why almost all organizational pollsters start using likely voter models as elections near.
What TWS shows is out of the nine states Reuters calls "states the races will be won", Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Florida, Nevada and Ohio, Romney either holds the lead or is within the margin of error in five of those states already, before his initial massive push in those states has concluded or can be effectively polled and evaluated.
Colorado- National Average of Non-Partisan LV Polls
Romney- 47.25%
Obama- 46.5%
Florida- National Average of Non-Partisan LV Polls
Romney- 47.0%
Obama- 47.0%
North Carolina- National Average of Non-Partisan LV Polls
Romney- 47.5%
Obama- 44.25%
Ohio- National Average of Non-Partisan LV Polls
Romney- 45.2%
Obama- 46.6
Virginia- National Average of Non-Partisan LV Polls
Romney- 46.5%
Obama- 47.2%
The inferences TWS draws from these results:
Read the entire two page article.1. President Obama’s numbers were mired at or below 47 percent nationwide and the key swing states, despite the fact that he is universally known and has been running many ads to develop a lead.2. Romney had a lead in North Carolina, while Colorado, Virginia, and Florida were effectively tied.3. While Obama had a lead in Ohio, his numbers in that state were, on average, the lowest of all the swing states measured here except for North Carolina.4. Obama has a larger lead in Wisconsin (48.7 to 46.7) and Michigan (47.5 to 45.3), but both states remain very tight. There was not enough polling to build a reliable average for Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire, but given Romney's media buys and the electoral history of these states, it is a fair bet that the results there were basically similar.5. After the convention bounce fades and after pollsters shift to likely voter screens, we should see a tightening of the race, and with it an adjustment of the conventional wisdom.6. In terms of the national polling, Romney has regularly been even or ahead of Obama in the registered voter polls conducted by ABC News/Washington Post, Gallup and CBS News/New York Times. It stands to reason that if these polls had been likely voter instead of likely voter polls, he would have had a small national lead.
Considering the raw data, it is not surprising that Neil Newhouse, Romney for President Pollster, is quite confident heading into the last leg of the presidential race, as he explains in their "State of the Race Memorandum", shown in full below:
TO: Interested PartiesIt is time to see if Obama can withstand the same level of media attacks from Romney, the RNC and superPACs that Romney has withstood all these months from Obama, the DNC and their superPACs.
FROM: Neil Newhouse, Romney for President Pollster
RE: State of the Race
DATE: September 10, 2012
Don't get too worked up about the latest polling. While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.
In his acceptance speech, President Obama did not offer any solutions for the millions of Americans unemployed or underemployed. But his convention speech was not the only big letdown to voters, as Americans also dealt with yet another dismal jobs report last week. President Obama is the only president in modern American history to stand before the American people asking for re-election with this many Americans struggling to find work. The key numbers in this election are the 43 straight months of 8% or higher unemployment, the 23 million Americans struggling to find work, and the 47 million Americans who are on food stamps.
Today, there is no question: Americans are not better off than we were four years ago, and that is why President Obama has struggled in this race. The truth is that some of President Obama’s allies are claiming victory, but others are acknowledging the unsustainable position in which they find themselves. This is evidenced in a recent quote in The New York Times by an Obama Administration official saying, “It’s certainly not what I would call the position we wanted to be in at this point in the race…He’s going to have to make the case that we wouldn’t even be at 8 percent if it weren’t for him.”
Consider the following points:
- The Obama Economy: The stakes are very high in this election, and voters understand the future of our country is on the line. This may be lost on those living within the hyper-political world in and around the Beltway, but it is not lost in communities in battleground states. In short, the Romney-Ryan campaign understands Americans struggling in the Obama economy will determine the outcome of the race, and once the preponderance of information about the President’s failed policies – combined with Mitt Romney’s vision to strengthen the middle class – are communicated,our nation will move in a different direction.
- All Signs Point to a Tight Race: Those watching the daily tracking polls know that, while the President has seen a bounce from his convention, his approval has already begun to slip, indicating it is likely to recede further. In eight states, Pollster.com’s reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts the margin between the two candidates at less than three points, virtually guaranteeing a tight race.
- Next, the battlefield has actually expanded, not contracted. Note that Wisconsin is now in play and our campaign is now up with ads in that state, while the latest poll numbers from the Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico show the race closing there. And this tightening is not an anomaly. Consider the traditional Democratic strongholds of New Jersey and Connecticut, won by President Obama in 2008 by margins of 15 points and 22 points, respectively. In both states, Pollster.com’s reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts Obama’s lead at only seven points in each of these states.
- In North Carolina, fresh off of hosting the Democratic National Convention, the Obama campaign is laying the groundwork for a stealth withdrawal. In a state the President won by a mere 14,000 votes in 2008, all one has to do is look at the Obama campaign’s television buy in the state to understand how they view their chances there. The Obama campaign’s North Carolina television buy has dropped 35% compared to June, and they have run more than twice as much advertising over the past two weeks in Rochester, Minnesota (hitting a small slice of Iowa), than they have in any North Carolina market.
- Historical Data: Political campaign historians will recall President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by a near double digit margin late in the fall in 1980. In that race, the voters made their decision based on the key issues confronting the nation and it determined the outcome. On the economy, the most important issue of this race, Mitt Romney leads by 51%-45%, according to the most recent CNN/ORC poll.
- Targeted Campaign: The Romney-Ryan campaign is running deeply local and targeted efforts in each of the states focusing on the voter groups that will make the difference on Election Day. Anyone asserting a “one-size-fits-all-campaign” effort is being put forward is simply misinformed, as evidenced by the 15 different ads released by the Romney Ryan campaign this past Friday and now running in nine states, including Wisconsin.
- New Money Advantage: All of this is not possible without resources, and the Romney-Ryan campaign and the Republican Party have a real advantage. In August alone, the Romney Victory effort raised more than $111 million, marking the third straight fundraising month of more than $100 million, putting us on a very strong financial footing for the final two months.
- Energy and Enthusiasm: CNN/ORC’s most recent polling shows that 62% of Republicans are “extremely” or “very” excited about this election, while only 56% of Democrats report being “extremely” or “very” excited. This Republican enthusiasm advantage has manifested itself in an unprecedented and historic grassroots effort that will have a significant impact on turnout in battleground states on Election Day. For instance, as of today, Victory volunteers have already knocked on more doors than during the entire 2008 campaign. (2.72 million in 2012 through September 8 compared to 2.43 million overall in 2008.)
Mitt Romney will be the next President. The outcome of this race will ultimately be determined in favor of Governor Romney because he has the better leadership skills, the better record, and the better vision for where he wants to take the country. These advantages are being fueled by the commitment and determination of volunteers and voters to change direction and move our country on a path toward economic growth and job creation. In short, the combination of having the superior candidate, being in a margin-of-error race with an incumbent President, having a cash advantage, and having an unprecedented grassroots effort and a winning message on the economy ensure that Americans will make a change in leadership in Washington on November 6
- Romney's Ground Game: During last weekend’s “Super Saturday,” we crossed the 20 million volunteer voter contact threshold. Also, the Romney campaign knocked on more doors last week than in any week during the 2008 campaign. More than 55,000 volunteers have knocked doors or made phone calls for Victory this year and that number is growing by the week. And volunteers have collected person-to-person identification information on nearly 1.7 million swing voters in battleground states thus far. And the numbers are even more startling when one looks at individual states. For instance, in Ohio alone, five times more phone calls and 28 times more door knocks have been made than at this time in 2008. This past Saturday, more than 100,000 doors were knocked on by Victory volunteers in the Buckeye State. And in Wisconsin, five times more phone calls and 72 times more door knocks have been made than at this time in 2008. And the list goes on and on.
Consider this analogy: A horse race where one horse sprints from the starting shot and continues to run all out for 3/4 of the race, while the second horse paces himself and still keeps up with the sprinting horse, they turn the final bend and the horse that conserved his energy starts his sprint on the last leg of the race.
I'll put my money on the horse that sprints last being the first to pass the finish line.
