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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Indiana and North Carolina Primaries

[Update below] Obama takes North Carolina. Clinton takes Indiana. Clinton to fight harder for Michigan and Florida to count.

As it stands now, Hillary Clinton is leading in Indiana and Barack Obama is ahead in North Carolina.

Neither is a surprise from the early results and this will be updated below with the final numbers when they are in.

Interestingly enough, Marc Ambinder is reporting that "if the surveys are accurate, the polarization within the Democratic Party has reached critical levels, if the exit polls are even close to accurate."

In both IN and NC, two thirds of Clinton supporters say they'd be dissatisfied if Obama were the nominee -- I believe that's the highest number recorded for that question, too.

The percentage of Clinton voters who say they'd choose McCain over Obama in a general election is approaching 40% in Indiana. Put it another way: in North Carolina, less than HALF of folks who voted today for Hillary Clinton are ready to say today that they'd definitely vote for Obama in a general election.


If Obama takes North Carolina, which he is expected to do, this is worrisome at a massive level for the Democratic party as a whole.

ABC is saying it is groundhog day and we are going to see 6 more weeks of the Democratic candidates ripping each other to shreds.

The Limbaugh soldiers?

Indiana's primary is open to Republicans and independents, as well as Democrats. Limbaugh is urging Republicans to cross over and vote for Clinton to extend the Democratic nomination fight and, he hopes, further damage the eventual nominee.

UPDATE: The Indianapolis Star reported online today that it appeared that droves of "hard-core" Republicans are crossing over to vote in the Democratic primary in GOP strongholds in Marion County and suburbs.

Exit polls suggest that Limbaugh's soldiers could have made a difference March 4 in Texas, where Clinton pulled out a narrow win in the primary, though Obama won the simultaneous caucuses.

Limbaugh told listeners on Monday that Democratic Party officials in Indiana are trying to intimidate Republican voters with monitors at the polls. So he issued these orders: "Flood these precincts. Vote for Mrs. Clinton as an act of defiance against these police-state tactics as a form of protest."


It also seems that Jeremiah Wright who is Obama's longtime pastor, with his controversial words, has indeed had an affect on NC and Indiana.

Obama's campaign office were evacuated today after a bomb threat.

Stop the ACLU is liveblogging the primaries, so head on over and catch up.

[Update] Obama routs Clinton in North Carolina. Clinton takes Indiana by a smaller margin that Obama took North Carolina. That battles continues!!!!!

Clinton has a 2 percentage point lead in Indiana with 100% of precincts reporting.

Clinton will fight tooth and nail now for Michigan and Florida to count.

CNN's Political Ticker reports that divisions are so deep that half of Clinton supporters will not back Obama if he is chosen as the nominee for the Democrats.

A third of Clinton voters said they would pick McCain over Obama, while 17 percent said they would not vote at all. Just 48 percent of Clinton supporters said they would back Obama in November.


Which puts the Democratic party as a whole in a very hard situation with Obama still ahead in the delegate count and Clinton having virtually no chance to catch up.

Whatever the Democratic superdelegates do at this point leaves them in a lose-lose situation.


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