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Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Number of Republicans Increase in December 2007

The latest Rasmussen poll has some very interesting numbers as well as comparisons as they show that the number of Republicans in the U.S. increased in December 2007 to a two year high.

In December the number of Americans that consider themselves Republican jumped to 34.2% and in the same timeframe the number of Americans that consider themselves Democrats fell to 36.3%, leaving the Democrats with a 2.1 percentage point advantage.

The comparisons that Rasmussen lists show that since last December, the Democrats, who at the time had a 6.9 percentage point advantage, have lost 4.8% of their support, consistently over the last year.

In what Rasmussen has termed a "dramatic change" from the previous five months when the gap favored Democrats by a margin between 4.5 and 4.9 percentage points each and every month.

Rasmussen also states that it is "startling to note that the Democrats have lost two-thirds of the partisan advantage since taking control of Congress."

In May, Republicans had hit the lowest level of party identification for the last four years (30.8%) and in five of the seven months since then they have gained ground but in December they gained 1.7 percentage points alone, which matched the total gains for last six months combined.

What explains such a large jump right before the caucuses and primaries?

Further Rasmussen findings show that Nancy Pelosi is viewed favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 51% of voters nationwide, down from a 49% favorable rating right after she took her position as Speaker of the House, which is 1 percentage point above the President's favorable rating, which is at 37% and has not changed for the last three straight months.

Rasmussen says the rise in the number of people considering themselves Republicans may be linked "to the fact that confidence in the War on Terror increased significantly during December."

While the President’s Approval didn’t budge in December, the number of people considering themselves Republicans increased during the month. In fact, the Democrats advantage in party identification is now the smallest it’s been in nearly two years. This may be linked to the fact that confidence in the War on Terror increased significantly during December.

That War on Terror poll was released on November 29, 2007 and showed that confidence on the War on Terror increased for the fourth straight month in a row, in November, and is now near the highest levels of president Bush's second term.

47% of Americans now say the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror.

During the first nine months of 2007, the number believing that the U.S. fell as low as 33% and reached the 40% level just once.

The Rasmussen Reports also found that 35% of all American voters expect things to get better in Iraq over the next six months while 32% expect the situation to get worse. That’s the first time in years that a majority has given a positive assessment on the situation in Iraq. The recent increase in optimism is described by Rasmussen as "substantial". Just four months ago, in July, 49% of American voters offered a pessimistic assessment of the situation in Iraq and only 23% expected things to get better.

Another point of interest regarding these numbers is the methodology used in the Rasmussen polling process where, for December, 37.3% of the targets polled were Democrats, while only 32.6% were Republicans and 30.1% were Unaffiliated and those numbers for January were 37% Democrat, 33.1% Republican and 29.9% Unaffiliated.