Yesterday Gallup issued a release which headlines "2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008," and for race, age, gender, the headline is accurate, but at the bottom of the chart which deals with party affiliation, the swing shown from the 2008 numbers to the 2012 numbers favors Republicans by 15 points.
At the very bottom of the chart below it shows the party ID of the 2004, 2008 and 2012 electorate according to pre-election polling.
2008:
Democrats 39 percent, Republicans 29 percent = 10 percent advantage for Democrats
With leaners included- Democrats 54 percent, Republicans 42 percent = 12 point advantage for Democrats.
2012:
Democrats 35 percent, Republicans 36 percent = one percent advantage for Republicans
With leaners included - Democrats 46 percent, Republicans 49 percent = 3 percent advantage for Republicans
From 2008 to 2012, the age, race and gender demographics are about the same but the makeup of those demographics via Party ID has swung 15 points in favor of Republicans, from D+12 to R+3.
Chart below, Party ID outlined in red at the bottom of the chart.
This is why conservatives have made such a big deal about skewed polling with pollsters using samples where they poll more Democrats than Republicans, and even in doing so, Romney leads the national average in polling by one percent, according to RCP.
H/T Neil Stevens over at Red State for pointing out the Gallup poll.
His conclusion:
The takeaway here is that Mitt Romney has many paths to victory. He’s solidified enough states (Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, and probably Colorado) that he has his chances elsewhere (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin + Iowa or New Hampshire, Nevada + New Hampshire + Maine 2).
This election is winnable for Mitt Romney as long as his people vote and get out the vote on election day.This also helps explain why the raw early voting data in Ohio is not matching up with the polling data.
[Update] There is another 15 point swing that should concern Barack Obama to no end.
October 1-3, 2012, Obama had a 54 percent approval rating with a 42 percent disapproval, via Gallup and today 46 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove.
Obama has gone from plus 12 approval to minus 3 in less than a month, according Gallup's interactive chart.