It is well known that candidates see a slight uptick in polling when they come off of a win, that's just the way the poll bounces, but Rick Santorum took three for three contests on February 7, 2012, Minnesota and Missouri, then he won Colorado where Mitt Romney was projected to win in a surprise upset.The bounce, the uptick, turned to a surge for Santorum in national polling and now multiple polling organizations are documenting that surge with poll data.
Gallup shows a 14 percentage point surge, putting Santorum in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney. Romney at 32 percent, Santorum at 30. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul come in third and fourth place respectively 16 and 8 percent..
Pew Research shows a 16 point jump for Santorum since they last polled in mid January, with Santorum at 30 percent and Romney at 28 percent, Gingrich 17 and Paul 12.
CBS News gives Santorum the support of 30 percent of GOP primary voters in their poll, followed by Romney at 27 percent. Ron Paul is now in third at 12 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich at 10 percent.
Losing Colorado was troubling for Mitt Romney, but the polling data for Michigan, a state where Romney was born, where his father served as governor during most of the 1960s, where pundits by and large assumed Romney could not lose, Santorum is now ahead of him in the polls there for the primary being held on February 28, 2012, shows the potential for a devastating loss for Romney, 33 to 27 percent in the ARG poll .
(Full Republican primary/caucus schedule found HERE)
Public Policy Polling gives Santorum an even larger lead over Romney in Michigan, 39 percent to 24 percent. Paul comes in at 12 percent, Gingrich at 11 percent, though neither of those candidates have focused on Michigan or the other contest in Arizona also to be held on February 28, 2012.
The media and the Republican establishment have pushed the Romney is inevitable meme from the start of the campaign season, but Romney's less than conservative history of votes, actions and tax and spend policies from when he was Governor of Massachusetts, may actually make him unelectable, instead of inevitable, among conservatives.
Disclaimer- While I am a Newt Gingrich supporter, I realize we do not always get the candidate of our choice and as a conservative Republican voter, I can say that if Santorum becomes the candidate the GOP nominates to go against Obama I would support him with enthusiasm. If Romney became the nominee, I would vote for him against Obama because anyone could do a better job than Obama has, in my opinion, but I would be far less enthused in doing so.
I am not the only one, states Romney has won the primaries in, Republican turnout has been down compared to turnout in 2008. Romney does not excite the Republican base.
In 2012, Republicans need a candidate that supporters can enthusiastically get behind.
Mitt Romney is not that candidate.
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