RNC Political Director Rick Wiley has issued a memo to interested parties and seems quite happy with the situation as it stands, says Democrats are "cannibalizing their Election Day voters" by convincing their most dependable voters to vote early, leaving not a whole lot left to show up on election day when generally Republican voters turn out in droves on election day.
The Democrats have expended much energy to make the point that more Democrats than Republicans have voted early in some states. It makes sense that the same desperate campaign that made “revenge” their closing argument would make this ridiculous stat the central defense of their ground game. Republicans are an Election Day party. By and large, we vote on Election Day, and we vote in much larger numbers than Democrats.
Democrats’ problems are compounded because, as they fail to tell you, they are cannibalizing their Election Day voters. The great turnout operation they claim to have isn’t turning out enough new or sporadic voters; they’re largely getting their reliable voters to vote early instead of on Election Day.
The Republican strategy has been the reverse of the Democrats’. We have turned out our voters who aren’t as likely to come to the polls on Election Day, securing their votes during early voting. Now, all that remains to do is give our reliable voters the final reminder needed to get them to the polls Tuesday. And we have many more reliable voters left than the Democrats.
In Colorado there are over 26,000 (34%) more high-propensity Republican voters available than high-propensity Democrat voters. In Florida there are 166,000 (21%) more; 85,000 (47%) more in Iowa; and 16,000 (22%) more in Nevada.
And in Ohio, Republicans have 368,000 more high-propensity voters available than Democrats–72 percent more, in fact–and enough to off-set the Obama campaign’s most optimistic (and unrealistic) early vote math.
So, when you add it all up, the Democrats’ early vote advantage just isn’t big enough. Republicans will come out ahead, and Mitt Romney will claim victory. And our superior ground game will ensure that the margin of victory is even greater than these numbers would suggest.
The Obama campaign’s superior ground game is a myth. They claim they have double and triple the people and offices across the country, yet poll after poll has shown voters have been contacted equally if not more by the Romney campaign and the Republicans. It goes to show you what big government bureaucracy gets you.
I’m glad Democrats are so eager to talk about their ground game. The more they talk, the more they prove the numbers don’t add up.
It’s (ground) game over.
Tomorrow is election day when Americans decide if they want four more years of the same or if they want Obama replaced and a Romney/Ryan presidency. If Wiley's numbers are correct, we may have our answer earlier in the evening rather than later.