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Sunday, November 04, 2012

Democratic Pollster, Public Policy Polling, Versus Everyone Else

By Susan Duclos

Usually when one pollster's numbers are contrary to multiple other pollster's numbers, the word "outlier" is thrown around, but with Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling (PPP), it appears that most of their poll numbers aren't matching up with a variety of other organizational polls.

Examples from today's Memeorandum headlines include Minnesota, Pennsylvania and a national poll.


PPP claims "In Pennsylvania Obama leads 52-46"

Susquehanna Polling and Research has Romney and Obama tied at 47 percent each as Romney heads to Pennsylvania to campaign on Sunday.

Breitbart's Big Government shows a few comparisons in previous elections between Susquehanna Polling and Research and PPP.


PPP claims "Obama up 8 in Minnesota"

 Via Politico- GOP firm NMB Research conducted a poll for American Future Fund and finds Romney takes 46 percent of the vote to Obama's 45 percent.


 PPP claims "Obama leads 50-47 nationally"

NBC and WSJ have the race deadlocked with Obama one point ahead 48 to 47 percent, which is within the margin of error, so they are statistically tied.

 Those were via Memeorandum today, but looking further, we see PPP results for Michigan which are clearly disputed by  Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan.


PPP claims "Obama leads by 6"

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B has Romney up by one in Michigan with 46 percent each. Romney 46.8 and Obama 46.2 percent, rounded up. (Note - RCP has Baydoun/Foster listed as (D): Democratic leaning pollster)

North Carolina:

Going back a few days, we see that PPP claims Romney and Obama are tied in North Carolina, yet Survey USA has Romney up over Obama by five percent, Rasmussen has Romney up over Obama by six percent.


PPP claims Obama is ahead by one in Florida.

TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon  has Romney ahead by six points.

New Hampshire:

PPP claims Obama is up by two.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center  has the race tied.

In every case PPP has issued results different from multiple other polling organizations and coincidence of all coincidences, PPP's manages to favor Obama  in every example shown above where the other pollsters (notice the amount of other pollsters listed above) have far different findings.

Yet Real Clear Politics allows PPP to influence their averaging totals.

I have said it before, I will repeat it, RCP should not allow any polling firm, where they feel the need to separate them with  (R) or (D), to influence their averages.

Contact information for RCP here.

(Correction made tot his post)