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Monday, May 07, 2012

Battleground Independents Favor Romney Over Obama 48 to 38 Percent

By Susan Duclos

The Politico reports on a new  POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll, which finds Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in what they call a dead heat, with Barack Obama receiving 48 percent of the likely voters and Mitt Romney 47 percent.

The devil is in the details though and in the three page piece the breakdowns among key groups, hot issues and Republicans starting to consolidate behind Romney, describes an atmosphere that Obama campaign handlers will find concerning to say the least.

According to Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who helped conduct the bipartisan poll, Democrats are "less enthusiastic than Republicans. (Page #1) 91 percent of Republicans support Romney which the article says slightly exceeds the number of Democrats that support Obama. (Page #1)

Assuming the majority of Democrats that decide to cast their vote, will vote for Obama and the majority of Republicans will vote for Romney, Independents then become a key voting bloc for the November 2012 presidential elections. Independents favor Mitt Romney by a 10 percent margin over Barack Obama, 48 to 38 percent. (Page #1

Among those that say they are "extremely likely" to vote in November, Romney holds a 6-point lead over Obama, contrasting Obama's 9-point lead in February, which is a 15-point net loss for Obama in less than four months.

Other findings:

• Anti-Obama sentiment continues to be more intense than pro-Obama sentiment. For example, twice as many voters strongly disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy as those who strongly approve. On the budget and spending, it’s a nearly 3-to-1 ratio. (Page #2)

• The electorate continues to overwhelmingly agree the most important issues in the election are the economy (28 percent), government spending (17 percent) and jobs (14 percent). A problem for the president: A plurality of voters disapproves of Obama’s performance in these three critical areas. (Page #2)

• Obama has a historically unusual 6-point edge over Romney on tax policy, but he must tread cautiously. Fifty percent disapprove of his handling of the issue. (Page #3)

• Obama continues to maintain an impressive reservoir of goodwill among voters. Seventy percent have a positive personal impression of Obama. Only 25 percent disapprove of him personally. But among the one-quarter of voters who like Obama personally but don’t like the job he’s doing, 68 percent said they will vote to replace him. (Page #3)

Complete Poll Results found here.