The obvious answer is that it depends upon what happens between now and then. A better question is which party will win the presidential election in 2012 because that is a lot easier to answer than which individual will win. The reason that is true is because as the 2000 presidential election reminded us, it is all about electoral votes. The electoral votes have changed since 2000 thanks to the 2010 census which transferred electoral votes from blue states to red states on the whole making it easier for a Republican to win.
First you need to forget just about everything you think you know about winning a presidential election because it is a whole new ballgame as a result of the change in electoral votes and therefore which states are battleground states. The answer to which party will control the White House comes down to a mere handful of states. You can forget about polling nationwide for which party will win the Presidency in 2012 because you only need to poll the new battleground states to know the answer.
Let's begin by looking at the revised electoral vote picture for the 2012 election:
Party State 2008 Margin 2004 Margin
2000 Margin 00-08 Margin 2012 Votes Party Totals D District of Columbia 85.73% 79.84% 76.21% 80.59% 3 3 D Massachusetts 25.81% 25.16% 27.30% 26.09% 11 14 D Rhode Island 27.84% 20.75% 29.10% 25.90% 4 18 D Hawaii 45.27% 8.75% 18.33% 24.12% 4 22 D New York 26.69% 18.29% 24.98% 23.32% 30 52 D Vermont 37.01% 20.14% 9.93% 22.36% 3 55 D Maryland 25.45% 12.98% 16.39% 18.27% 10 65 D Connecticut 22.37% 10.36% 17.47% 16.73% 7 72 D Illinois 25.10% 10.34% 12.02% 15.82% 20 92 D California 24.06% 9.94% 11.08% 15.27% 55 147 D Delaware 24.99% 7.60% 13.06% 15.22% 3 150 D Maine 17.33% 8.99% 5.12% 10.48% 4 154 D New Jersey 15.57% 6.68% 15.81% 12.69% 14 168 D Washington 17.17% 7.18% 5.58% 9.98% 12 180 D Michigan 16.47% 3.42% 5.13% 8.34% 16 196 D Oregon 16.35% 4.16% 0.44% 6.98% 7 203 D Pennsylvania 10.32% 2.50% 4.17% 5.66% 20 223 D Minnesota 10.24% 3.48% 2.41% 5.38% 9 232 D Wisconsin 13.91% 0.38% 0.22% 4.84% 10 242 I New Mexico 15.13% 0.79% 0.06% 4.80% 5 247 I New Hampshire 9.61% 1.37% 1.27% 3.24% 4 251 I Iowa 9.54% 0.67% 0.31% 3.06% 6 257 I Nevada 12.50% 2.59% 3.54% 2.12% 6 263 I Ohio 4.54% 2.10% 3.51% 0.36% 18 275 I Colorado 8.95% 4.67% 8.36% 1.36% 9 257 I Florida 2.81% 5.01% 0.01% 2.21% 28 248 I Virginia 6.30% 8.20% 8.03% 3.31% 13 220 I Missouri 0.14% 7.20% 3.34% 3.56% 11 207 I North Carolina 0.33% 12.44% 5.53% 5.88% 15 196 R Arizona 8.52% 10.47% 6.29% 8.43% 11 181 R West Virginia 13.12% 12.86% 6.33% 10.77% 5 170 R Tennessee 15.07% 14.27% 3.87% 11.07% 11 165 R Georgia 5.21% 16.60% 11.69% 11.17% 16 154 R Arkansas 19.86% 9.76% 5.45% 11.69% 6 138 R Indiana 1.04% 20.68% 15.64% 11.76% 11 132 R Louisiana 18.63% 14.50% 7.67% 13.60% 8 121 R South Carolina 8.97% 17.08% 15.94% 14.00% 9 113 R Montana 2.26% 20.51% 25.08% 15.95% 3 104 R Mississippi 13.81% 19.69% 16.92% 16.60% 6 101 R Kentucky 16.23% 19.86% 15.13% 17.07% 8 95 R South Dakota 8.41% 21.47% 22.74% 17.54% 3 87 R Texas 11.77% 22.87% 21.32% 18.65% 38 84 R Alabama 21.58% 25.62% 14.91% 20.70% 9 46 R Kansas 14.96% 25.38% 20.80% 20.83% 6 37 R North Dakota 8.63% 27.36% 27.60% 21.20% 3 31 R Nebraska 14.93% 33.22% 29.00% 25.72% 5 28 R Alaska 21.53% 25.55% 30.95% 26.01% 3 23 R Oklahoma 31.30% 31.14% 21.88% 28.11% 7 20 R Idaho 25.43% 38.12% 39.53% 34.36% 4 13 R Wyoming 32.24% 39.79% 40.06% 37.36% 3 9 R Utah 28.17% 45.54% 40.49% 38.07% 6 6
The first thing to notice is that if the states vote the way they did on average between 2000 and 2008, the Republicans win 275 to 263 electoral votes as shown in the last column. To see if that is likely we need to look at any trends between 2000 and 2008 to see if the state is showing a steady trend of moving from one party to the other one in the purple or contested states. It would appear that among the states that are shown as Republican that Colorado is drifting towards the Democrats which would throw the election to the Democrats 272 to 266. To make up for this loss, the Republicans would have to carry one of the next four purple states: Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire or New Mexico. Since all but New Hampshire is trending to the Democrats, the Republicans would need to carry New Hampshire to make up for losing Colorado.
The next consideration is that undoubtedly the Democrat candidate will be President Obama and he made deep inroads into the Republican states so we must ask if he can repeat this feat. Therefore we need to look at the states he won that he might not be able to carry in 2012. If he won by better than a 5% margin then those states are a real problem for the Republicans. Virginia and Colorado were lost by more than that. As you look at what states might make up for Virginia, you will see that all of the states that are blue in the last column were lost by a greater margin than Virginia so if Obama carries Virginia in 2012, he wins re-election. If he carries Colorado which he won by 8.95%, he must lose New Hampshire which he carried by 9.61% or Iowa which he carried by 9.54%. Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire will decide the election because the Republicans must carry either Colorado or either Iowa or New Hampshire in addition to Virginia.
It goes without saying that the Republican candidate must also carry the other four states they lost by less than 5%. Thus polling those eight states will tell you who will win in 2012. The Republicans must be ahead in five of them and ahead in either Colorado, Iowa or New Hampshire. So what do we know about the Republican chances in those eight states? Here is what the 2010 House races told us in those eight states plus the next four just to make sure we are not missing any bets:
| State | 2008 Margin | 2010 House Margin | Average Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 0.33% | 14.44% | 7.06% |
| Indiana | 1.04% | 28.20% | 13.58% |
| Florida | 2.81% | 30.45% | 13.82% |
| Ohio | 4.54% | 19.30% | 7.38% |
| Virginia | 6.30% | 19.45% | 6.58% |
| Colorado | 8.95% | 8.00% | 0.48% |
| Iowa | 9.54% | 18.86% | 4.66% |
| New Hampshire | 9.61% | 12.90% | 1.65% |
| Minnesota | 10.24% | 2.65% | 6.45% |
| Pennsylvania | 10.32% | 6.14% | 2.09% |
| Nevada | 12.50% | 9.84% | 2.66% |
| Wisconsin | 13.91% | 17.07% | 3.16% |
| New Mexico | 15.13% | 2.50% | 8.82% |
If the voters repeat what they did in the 2010 House races, Obama is toast. Even if they wind up half way between what they did in 2008 and 2010, the Republicans win because they carry Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin which more than makes up for losing Colorado. If you want to know which party will control the White House in 2013, poll Colorado. If a generic Republican candidate is ahead of Obama, the Republicans will win 2012. If Obama is ahead in Colorado, poll Iowa and New Hampshire. If the generic Republican is ahead in either state, the Republicans will win but if the generic Republican is behind in both states, Obama will win. For an even cheaper answer, just poll Wisconsin. If the generic Republican is ahead, Obama is all through. Yes, it really is that simple.
