Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Senate Outlook

These tables reflect only the Democrat seats that are up this year. While a few Republican seats are not absolutely certain, we project the Republicans will retain all of their existing seats. At this time, if the toss-ups break 3 - 2 for the Republicans as we show here, there will be a tie in the Senate since the two independents caucus with the Democrats thus giving Vice-President Biden the tie breaking vote. The 5 toss-up seats will decide who controls Congress. Last month Kirk was ahead by 3 points over Giannoulias in the polls but he is down 1 this month so we had to transfer Illinois from Republican toss-up to Democrat toss-up.

STATUS DEMOCRATS TOSS-UPS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS
NOT UP THIS YEAR 39
23 2
UP THIS YEAR 7 5 24
TOTALS 46 5 47 2


SAFE DEMOCRAT

LIKELY DEMOCRAT

DEMOCRAT TOSS UP

STATE SENATOR PROB
Connecticut Open -6.8%
Hawaii Daniel Inouye -577.8%
Maryland Barbara Mikulski
-23.8%
New York Chuck Schumer
-189.1%
Vermont Patrick Leahy
-284.4%

5 DEMOCRATS

STATE SENATOR PROB
New York
Kirsten Gillibrand
35.6%
Oregon Ron Wyden 15.5%









2 DEMOCRATS

STATE SENATOR PROB
California Barbara Boxer 46.9%
Illinois Open 46.3%









2 DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICAN TOSS UP

LEAN REPUBLICAN

LIKELY REPUBLICAN

STATE SENATOR PROB
Nevada Harry Reid
54.3%
Washington Patty Murray 52.2%
Wisconsin
Russ Feingold
54.6%






3 DEMOCRATS

STATE SENATOR PROB
Arkansas Blanche Lincoln
65.1%
Colorado Michael Bennet 63.5%
Delaware
Open
65.4%
Indiana
Open
67.7%
Penn.
Open
61.7%

5 DEMOCRATS

STATE SENATOR PROB
North Dakota
Open 85.9%












1 DEMOCRAT