A couple NYT articles and an ABC story all delve into different aspects of Hillary Clinton's chances for being elected as President in 2008 vs Barack Obama's chances. Some point out that Obama has less experience and no baggage, and others point out that Clinton has electability issues and a ton of baggage associates with her.
If both these Senators run, it could very well negate the possibility of any Democrat winning the 2008 Presidential race.
This was said to me by someone the other day, a Democrat no less, that was annoyed that the party is going to shoot itself in the head before 2008 even arrives. (His quote, not mine)
So, I pressed on, asking why he said this and he made a couple decent points.
His main point was the division of the actual votes, he pointed out that to him it was a mathematical issue, pure and simple. You have X amount of votes, and if they are divided, that makes less for each of the individuals.... his point being, having two "favorites" in one party will divide the base. Makes sense.
His second point was one I have been making here.... The Democrats ran on certain issues this year, one big one was the 9/11 commission recommendations would be implemented and before they even officially take their offices there is talk about not doing so.
Back to the news articles, one states:
But more than simply picking up the pace, Democrats increasingly believe that Mr. Obama has the potential of upending the dynamics of the 2008 contest more than any other Democrat who might run — short, perhaps, of Al Gore, the former vice president, whom some Democrats are pressing to run.
In Mr. Obama, Democrats have a prospective candidate who both underlines and compensates for the potential weaknesses that worry many Democrats about Mrs. Clinton.
The ABC piece points out:
While Hillary Rodham Clinton tops every national poll of likely 2008 Democratic presidential contenders, the New York senator is dogged by questions of "electability" political code for whether she can win enough swing states to prevail in a general election.
This also seems to have been my friends contention, Clinton with all her experience, is not "likable" and Obama is.
All in all, it should be a good show to watch in the next two years with McCain and Co. reaping the benefits of the infighting between the Democratic party.
The ABC piece sums it up nicely here:
"She's a senator, she'd be the first woman running, and she's Hillary Clinton," he said. "All of that is almost insurmountable for a general election."
He added: "There are people who would write a check and die for her, but there are plenty of others who wouldn't vote for her if she promised to eliminate the income tax and give free ice cream to everyone. People have made up their minds about her, and that doesn't give her much room to maneuver."
Barack Obama just may be a worthy adversary to Hillary Clinton, but will the two of them negate the possibility of any Democrat winning? Time shall tell.
Others discussing this:
Outside The Beltway.
Iowa Voice.
PoliBlog.
Capatin's Quarters on both issues.
It Shines for All.
