Saturday, February 04, 2012

Nevada Caucus 2012- Result and Entrance Polling Data

By Susan Duclos

This post will be updated, on top, when the results are tallied.

[Update] NYT has the delegate counts as 81 for Mitt Romney, 27 for Newt Gingrich, 15 for Rick Santorum and 6 for Ron Paul. (1,144 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination)

Side Note- The AP gives the delegate count with endorsements from Republican National Committee members who will automatically attend the convention and can support any candidate they choose, showing those totals as 97 for Romney, 30 got Gingrich, 16 for Santorum and 7 for Paul.

[Update] Romney, Gingrich, Paul then Santorum respectively. Will update on allocation of delegates soon.

[Update] As expected from the massive lead in the polls, Romney took first place, Santorum projected in 4th place and Gingrich and Paul's numbers are too close to call with 10 percent of the precincts reporting. More tomorrow on the actual numbers.

[Update] Entrance poll data will be at Fox News when it becomes available, found HERE.
CNN has a results page HERE for when the vote tallies are posted.

More entrance poll results from CBS News, showing 44 percent of Nevada Republican caucus-goers named electability as the candidate quality that matters most, 20 percent said strong moral character matters the most, while 17 percent said being a true conservative. Sixteen percent say having the right experience matters the most.

More:

Only 22 percent of Nevada voters decided on their candidate in the last few days, the entrance polling shows. Twenty percent decided in January while 57 percent decided earlier than that.


[Update] Video below shows entrance polling data:





The Nevada Caucus website provides the relevant information:

How does the Nevada Caucus work?
As most caucuses work, you do not do a direct vote for a candidate like primaries. The caucus has 3 levels: The precinct, the county convention and finally the state convention. Overall Nevada has 33 Democratic delegates and 34 Republican delegates.

Nevada Precinct Caucuses
This is where any registered voter can participate. The precinct voting is a very informal proceeding. It starts with the voters gathered into preference groups for each candidate. A simple head count is taken for each precinct. It takes a minimum of 15 percent in each precinct for a candidate to be viable. If a candidate's preference group is not viable, they can choose to caucus with another group (pick another candidate), or be uncommitted. There is time for each viable candidate's group to try to talk the unviable candidates voters into choosing their candidate. This is way many times a candidate will seem to have not received any votes, though the actually may have originally. Each precinct then elects a representative (delegate) to move on to the county convention.

Nevada County Convention
Delegates to the county convention were then selected amongst the candidate groups. A similar process occurred at the county convention. Although they file statements of support for their chosen candidate, all delegates are technically unbound until the state convention, otherwise the may change their vote. In some cases the candidate originally chosen may have dropped out of the race.

Nevada State Convention
There is no formal system of allocating delegates to presidential candidates at the state convention for the Republicans while the Democrats delegates to the state convention are chosen by vote at the county convention.

KGO 810 News provides more information on caucus times and other information:

Like Florida, Nevada’s contest is only open to registered Republicans. The registration deadline ended Jan. 21, two weeks before Saturday’s caucus date. The state lists 468,174 registered Republicans, about 35 percent of the total registered voting population. In 2008, 44,315 votes were cast in the Republican presidential caucus.

[SNIP]

Caucus times will vary across the state, but most will take place between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. PT. There is one evening caucus scheduled at 7 p.m. in Clark County for those voters who cannot caucus during the day because of religious reasons.

The narrative of the state of the economy takes on a particular importance in Nevada. The state has the highest unemployment rate in the country—12.6 percent as of December. Nevada also has the highest foreclosure rate in the country. One in every 177 homes in Nevada received a foreclosure filing in December 2011, according to the foreclosure database RealtyTrac.


Mitt Romney is the odds on favorite to win in Nevada according to polling, the real question is who will come in 2nd, 3rd and 4th places as the delegates are proportional.

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