While the predictive value of head-to-head match ups between Barack Obama and GOP presidential hopefuls, is limited in my opinion, until one Republican candidate is chosen as the nominee and the party supporters can unite behind him, it is noteworthy that the latest Florida polls such as Quinnipiac's poll, show both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum statistically tied with Barack Obama.The top Republican presidential challenger, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, has 46 percent of registered voters to President Barack Obama's 43 percent. If former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum gets the GOP nomination, he scores 43 percent to President Obama's 45 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
According to this poll, Barack Obama has a serious Florida problem: He is hemorrhaging support, especially with the over 50 crowd which makes up 62 percent of the Florida electorate.
The president carries voters 18 to 49 years old 51 - 39 percent, but loses 49 - 40 percent among voters 50 to 64 years old and loses 53 - 39 percent among voters over 65.
Florida carries 29 electoral votes in 2012, which makes it a critical state for any presidential hopeful and for Obama's electoral road map to reelection.
Florida is one of 13 projected swing states that could swing either way to Barack Obama or the GOP nominee.
Swing states and electoral votes:
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Missouri (10)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
New Mexico (5)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
That leaves 161 electoral votes projected as undecided.
Obama holds a projected 196
GOP candidate holds a projected 181
It takes 270 Electoral Votes to win the Presidential Election.
(Source)
As can be seen above, Florida is the swing state with the most electoral votes, thereby becoming a state of inarguable importance for the 2012 presidential elections and Obama freefall in Florida does not bode well in his bid for reelection.
Obama Job Performance Approval/Disapproval in swing states
Colorado- 50 percent of voters disapprove with 45 percent approval.
Florida- 54 percent disapprove of Obama with 42 approval and 52 percent of registered voters do not believe he deserves to be reelected.
Iowa- 46 percent disapprove with 43 percent approval.
Michigan- 65 percent rate Obama negatively, 34 percent positive.
Missouri- 53 percent disapprove with 43 percent approval.
Nevada- 53 percent disapprove with 44 approval.
New Hampshire- 52 disapprove with 40 percent approval.
New Mexico- 46 percent disapprove with 49 percent approval.
North Carolina- 48 percent disapprove with 43 percent approval.
Ohio- 52 percent disapprove with 43 percent approval.
Pennsylvania- 53 percent disapprove with 42 percent approval.
(Note- Undecided voters show 70 percent disapproval with 24 percent approval)
Virginia- 51 percent disapprove with 42 percent approval and 53 percent of voters do not believe he deserves to be reelected.
Wisconsin- 51 percent disapprove with 44 approval.
Polling for only one state out of the 13 swing states shows Obama above water with approval/disapproval ratings.
That does not bode well for Barack Obama's reelection bid.
[Update] Then again the Republican party could always shoot themselves in the foot by angering GOP supporters by punishing them with loss of half the delegates for moving their primary to January.
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