The one word answer is yes. We believe Trump is very serious and plans to announce his candidacy once his television show finishes the season. Now before you instantly proclaim that this is just a publicity stunt consider that this theory does not explain what he has done so far. We have been involved in many political campaigns as even a candidate five times (won four out of five) and as a congressional campaign manager a few times. If Trump had asked our advice (he hasn't), we would advise him to do exactly what he is doing. You need to get the attention of the base of the Republican Party on issues that resonate with them. You need to convince the base that you are one of them. If this was a publicity stunt he would not being wooing the evangelicals. These folks are hardly an audience for his television show or his business deals.
For a candidate with no previous political experience, you have to do what the other candidates with such experience have been taught never to do. You have to take the bull by the horns and do things that the other candidates would not touch with a mile long pole. The "birther" issue is a case in point. No one else would touch that issue because the mass media has made mincemeat out of anyone who has tried to make an issue of it. Thus those people cannot get the time of day from the mass media. They are not "The Donald". He is just about the only person on the planet who can push the issue and make the media cover it precisely because he is "The Donald". Right away he breaks out of the pack by doing something they would never do. Of course, anyone else doing this would kill any chances of their winning any election. Trump only gets a huge jump with the Republican primary voters by doing this.
Many of you will say that even if this view is correct, he has killed his chances in the general election with this "stunt". You are assuming that Trump will continue to push the idea that Obama was not born in the United States and that it was the biggest con in the history of the world. Well it was the biggest con in history but not because Obama was not born in Hawaii. It does not matter whether Obama was born in Hawaii or not because even if he was born in Hawaii and he probably was, he is not a natural born citizen of the United States as required by the Constitution. Native born is not the same thing as natural born. Being born in the United States makes you a native born citizen even if both your parents are citizens of Mexico. That is the whole thing behind the anchor baby issue.
You have to have both parents be citizens of the United States to be natural born and you can be natural born even when your were not born in the United States. John McCain was born in Panama but both of his parents were U. S. citizens so he is still a natural born citizen. Obama's father was a British and/or Kenyan citizen so there is no way Obama can be a natural born citizen. You can bet that Trump knows this difference and will pivot to this position later in the election process after he has milked the "not even native born" issue for all it is worth. In the meantime, he has the mass media playing right into his hands because they are giving him unprecedented coverage thinking they are destroying him over the "ridiculous" birther issue. However, that same coverage allows him to tear Obama to ribbons on every other issue under the sun. This is a brilliant public relations ploy but what else would you expect from a man who is a master of publicity?
When the dust settles, Trump will have a reputation of being willing to take any issue right to Obama and make the mass media cover it. You can ignore any other contender on any particular issue but it is hard to ignore "The Donald" on any issue. As Trump continues to hammer on all of the things that have gone wrong in this country and tie Obama to every one of them whether deserved or not, he will point out that his background gives him the experience to "fix" these problems. Right now the economy is the big issue and Obama's ratings on his handling of the economy are in the toilet. Along comes Trump and says I believe I know something about economics so you can believe me when I tell you I know how to fix these problems. Is that so hard to believe? Trump has proven he knows how to do business and Obama looks like he has no clue because he has no track record in business.
Okay, assume for a moment that our analysis is right and Trump is very serious. Why is he doing this? Is it just for the attention and to prove he can get elected? Those are surely part of his reasons. How about because Trump is convinced that his businesses will go down with the ship of the country if the economy is not fixed and soon? Trump is convinced he can straighten out the mess and save his businesses from going over the cliff. He has convinced himself that he has no choice but to try because he is convinced no one else has a clue about how to fix things so that leaves him. Since he can fund the campaign out of his assets, raising money is not a problem and he can match Obama dollar for dollar. The Obama folks are gleeful at the thought of Trump as the Republican candidate. We suggest that he is more likely to be their worst nightmare.