In week 2 of a series of polls The Hill is conducting the news is good for Republicans as the lead in polling for 8 out of the 10 seats polled on.The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is also pulling advertising funds from at least four other vulnerable districts, including "districts held by Reps. Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.), Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.) and Steve Driehaus (Ohio), as well as open seats in Indiana's 8th district, Tennessee's 8th district and Kansas's 3rd district. " (Source)
Taken on top of 11 GOP leads out of 12 freshman Democratic districts polled last week, The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll points toward 19 Republican victories out of 22 races, while Democrats win only two and one is tied.
Tennessee 8
D: Roy Herron, 37%
R: Stephen Fincher, 47%
Washington 3
D: Denny Heck, 40%
R: Jaime Herrera, 42%
Arkansas 1
D: Chad Causey, 34%
R: Rick Crawford, 46%
Wisconsin 7
D: Julie Lassa, 35%
R: Sean Duffy, 44%
Hawaii 1
D: Colleen Hanabusa, 41%
R: Charles Djou, 45%
Pennsylvania 7
D: Bryan Lentz, 39%
R: Patrick Meehan, 40%
New Hampshire 2
D: Ann Kuster, 42%
R: Charlie Bass, 45%
Michigan 1
D: Gary McDowell, 39%
R: Dan Benishek, 42%
The two Democrats lead in are:
Illinois 10
D: Dan Seals, 49%
R: Robert Dold, 37%
West Virginia 1
D: Mike Oliverio, 42%
R: David McKinley, 39%
(Data from The Hill)
Obama's numbers in these areas seems to be related to the poor showing of Democrats:
Obama’s approval ratings were a net negative in the 10 districts, with 51 percent of likely voters voicing disapproval of the job he is doing. Among independent voters that number is higher, with 56 percent disapproving; 42 percent of independents “strongly disapprove” of the president.
More:
Approval ratings for Congress are worse: Seventy-two percent of likely voters disapprove of the job Congress is doing, including 81 percent of independents.
On the generic ballot question, Republicans hold a three-point edge, with 43 percent of likely voters saying they intend to vote for the Republican this fall, compared to 40 percent who picked the Democrat. Among independents, that generic ballot lead stretches to 11 points in favor of the GOP.
In the 12 battleground districts being defended by freshman Democrats last week, Obama’s approval rating was even lower, at 42 percent, and the approval rating of Congress was only 20 percent.
The president continues to be a factor for voters in picking their next member of Congress. In the 10 open seats polled, a majority of voters said Obama will be an important consideration when they go to the ballot box.
In other news, there are accusations from State Sen. Roy Herron (D-TN) that the advertising is pulled from his race because he has publicly stated he would not support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House if Democrats managed to maintain their majority after the November 2, 2010 midterm elections.
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