Gallup:
Gallup's generic ballot for Congress among registered voters currently shows Republicans with 46% of the vote and Democrats with 43%, similar to the 46% to 46% tie reported a week ago. However, in Gallup's first estimates among likely voters, based on polling from Sept. 23-Oct. 3, Republicans have a double-digit advantage under two separate turnout scenarios.
Breakdown analysis:
Within both likely voter pools, Republicans are highly likely to vote for the Republican candidate, and Democrats for the Democratic candidate. Independents in both likely voter models skew strongly toward the Republican candidate. Gallup has found independent registered voters consistently preferring Republican candidates throughout the campaign.
The GOP is positioned to do very well in the midterms, they need a 39 seat net gain in the House to take control, which seems likely and a 10 seat net gain in the Senate which seems less likely.
Taking either of the those will put a stop to the Democrats attempts to jam through Barack Obama's agenda though.
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