These tables reflect only the Democrat seats that are up this year. While a few Republican seats are not absolutely certain, we project the Republicans will retain all of their existing seats. At this time, if the toss-ups break 3 - 2 for the Republicans as we show here, there will be a tie in the Senate since the two independents caucus with the Democrats thus giving Vice-President Biden the tie breaking vote. The 5 toss-up seats will decide who controls Congress. Last month Kirk was ahead by 3 points over Giannoulias in the polls but he is down 1 this month so we had to transfer Illinois from Republican toss-up to Democrat toss-up.
| STATUS | DEMOCRATS | TOSS-UPS | REPUBLICANS | INDEPENDENTS |
| NOT UP THIS YEAR | 39 |
| 23 | 2 |
| UP THIS YEAR | 7 | 5 | 24 |
|
| TOTALS | 46 | 5 | 47 | 2 |
| SAFE DEMOCRAT | LIKELY DEMOCRAT | DEMOCRAT TOSS UP |
| | STATE | SENATOR | PROB | | Connecticut | Open | -6.8% | | Hawaii | Daniel Inouye | -577.8% | | Maryland | Barbara Mikulski
| -23.8% | | New York | Chuck Schumer
| -189.1% | | Vermont | Patrick Leahy
| -284.4% | 5 DEMOCRATS
| | STATE | SENATOR | PROB | New York
| Kirsten Gillibrand
| 35.6% | | Oregon | Ron Wyden | 15.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2 DEMOCRATS
| | STATE | SENATOR | PROB | | California | Barbara Boxer | 46.9% | | Illinois | Open | 46.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2 DEMOCRATS |
| REPUBLICAN TOSS UP | LEAN REPUBLICAN | LIKELY REPUBLICAN |
| STATE | SENATOR | PROB | | Nevada | Harry Reid
| 54.3% | | Washington | Patty Murray | 52.2% | Wisconsin
| Russ Feingold
| 54.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
| 3 DEMOCRATS | | STATE | SENATOR | PROB | | Arkansas | Blanche Lincoln
| 65.1% | | Colorado | Michael Bennet | 63.5% | Delaware
| Open
| 65.4% | Indiana
| Open
| 67.7% | Penn.
| Open
| 61.7% | 5 DEMOCRATS | | STATE | SENATOR | PROB | North Dakota
| Open | 85.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 DEMOCRAT |
