Currently, 35.5% of American adults view themselves as Democrats. That’s down from 36.0 a month ago and from 37.8% in October. Prior to December, the lowest total ever recorded for Democrats was 35.9%, a figure that was reached twice in 2005. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.
The number of Republicans inched up by a point in December to 34.0%. That’s the highest total for Republicans since December 2007, just before the 2008 presidential campaign season began.
However, the number of Republicans in the country is essentially no different today than it was in November 2008 when Barack Obama was elected president.
The change since Obama’s election is that the number of Democrats has fallen by six percentage points and the number of voters not affiliated with either major party has grown by six. The number of adults not affiliated with either party is currently at 30.6%, up from 24.7% in November 2008.
Since Barack Obama has become the President, the rise in self-identifying Democrats has not only stopped but has reversed itself with the same six percent drop being seen as a six percent rise in those not identifying as affiliated with either party.
Not only is the lowering number of those identifying as Democrats worrisome for Democratic politicians, but the rise in Independents and those not affiliated with either party is concerning to them as well because in the 2008 election it was Independents that put Obama over the top and now those same voters are more supportive of the GOP.
When Obama was inaugurated last January, Democrats had a seven-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. Republicans now have a five-point advantage. That change has been brought about partly by the declining number of Democrats and partly by the fact that unaffiliated voters are now more supportive of the GOP.
Despite Democrats slamming Rasmussen polling, Rasmussen was the first to notice the trend of the presidential approval dipping below 50 percent, which after a few weeks was confirmed by multiple other polling organizations, thereby showing Rasmussen was well ahead of the curve.
2010 is here and the elections in November are important to both political parties. Handicappers say that Republicans will pick up gains in the double digits, in the House, which in and of itself is normal, but the amount of seats the GOP is expected to pick up is not. Some say it will be in the 20's and others believe there is a good possibility, if the trend we are seeing continues, that the GOP will pick up the 41 seats needed to take back the House of Representatives and force the Democratic White House and Democratically controlled Senate to work in a bipartisan manner to get anything done instead of just being able to slam their own agenda through all three branches.
Democrats in the Senate that are up for reelection in November are having their own problems with polling numbers.
Rasmussen Reports has released Senate polls for Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, Illinois, Connecticut, Missouri, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and California. Collectively, these polls define a difficult political environment for Democrats as 2010 begins. But there's still a long way to go until November, so Democrats have time to implement damage control efforts.
Rasmussen Reports also has released polls on the 2010 governor’s races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Texas.
Wake up America will be tracking polls, races and candidates in 2010 leading up to the elections and try to bring readers as much news about each election as we can... 2010 promises to be a very interesting political year.
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