New polling confirms that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) is mired near 40% in general election ballot tests against all potential opponents, even those voters know nothing about. It will be extremely difficult for him to pull out a win, as Sens. Rick Santorum (R-PA) and John Sununu (R-NH), and more recently New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D), found out.
Reid's most recent controversial comments don't help because they keep the story focused on him, rather than on his opponents. Given Reid’s current standing with voters, he should be viewed as a slight underdog for reelection, which is why we are moving this race from Toss-up to Lean Takeover for the GOP.
There is speculation that despite Reid's assertions to the contrary, he may retire because he is done for and a drag on the Democratic party as a whole, even before his unfortunate comments about Obama's skin color and dialect became public fodder.
The major reason has nothing to do with his many verbal gaffes, the latest of which exploded over the weekend. The simple fact is that he probably can't win re-election -- almost no incumbent senator as far down in the polls has come back to win. Asked if Mr. Reid is finished, NBC Political Director Chuck Todd said yesterday, "I think so. I do -- absolutely."
A new Mason-Dixon survey of Nevada voters finds Mr. Reid's favorable rating at just 33%, with 60% of voters disapproving of his role in the health-care debate. He trails three major GOP opponents jostling to run against him in their party's primary. He loses 50% to 40% to former GOP state chair Sue Lowden, to real estate developer Danny Tarkanian by 49% to 41%, and by 45% to 40% to former state legislator Sharron Angle. Extensive media buys by Mr. Reid to showcase his record of Senate accomplishment have done nothing to move his poll numbers.
Nevada political observers say Democrats are making contingency plans in case Mr. Reid leaves office, possibly recruiting one of the state's two Democratic congresswomen to replace him. There's even talk of coaxing former Democratic Senator and Nevada Governor Richard Bryan out of retirement to run.
Rasmussen reports that Reid has dropped seven points in the last month:
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Nevada finds Reid earning just 36% of the vote against his two top Republican challengers. That’s a seven-point drop from 43% a month ago.
Reid, who is seeking a fifth term, received 61% of the final vote in 2004.
Considering this is Nevada we are talking about, here is a little advice to Harry Reid and the Democratic party, from Kenny Rogers:
Fold em folks, cut your losses.
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