Teaser:
Obama and Capitol Hill leaders don't need to worry too much about their modest drop in support from Democratic voters or the predictable drop on the Republican side. But top Democrats should be very frightened about the sharp drop in support among independents, because it could ultimately threaten their party's hold on the House and shrink their majority in the Senate.
The writer, Charlie Cook, focuses on patterns as he concludes "With 14 months to go before the 2010 midterm election, something could happen to improve the outlook for Democrats. However, wave elections, more often than not, start just like this: The president's ratings plummet; his party loses its advantage on the generic congressional ballot test; the intensity of opposition-party voters skyrockets; his own party's voters become complacent or even depressed; and independent voters move lopsidedly away. These were the early-warning signs of past wave elections. Seeing them now should terrify Democrats."
Historical data on patterns such as these is done by Democratic advisers and pollster as well as Republican ones and should be a clear indicator to Democrats now that they need to change their approach.
They don't need to appeal to their base nor to conservatives at this time, they need to take a step back and find out what the Independents want, because they will determine the outcome of 2010.
They also need to determine what Independents do not want, and stop pushing for it against the majority.
This is something the Democrats, to date, do not seem able to comprehend.
Read the whole National Journal piece.
.