In both 2000 and 2004, exit polls found 11 percent of Democrats voting for Bush. In contrast, 8 percent of Republicans voted for Gore in 2000 and 6 percent crossed over to support Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) four years later. Obama may be able to improve on those percentages among Republicans, but it seems unlikely that he will be able to limit Democratic defections to below what they were in the past two contests.
A close electoral map invariably raises the specter of a possible split decision -- with one nominee winning the popular vote and the other winning an Electoral College majority. As in 2000, this seems like a serious possibility.
Obama is likely to "waste" votes in Illinois, New York and California (winning them with large majorities), and he may gain some ground in normally Republican states -- getting closer than most Democrats normally do, but not winning.
If this happens, and if Obama narrowly loses one or two larger, traditionally Democratic states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, we could see an updated version of 2000, with McCain winning the White House at the same time that Obama gets more than half a million more votes.
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Considering the anger over the DNC's treatment of Michigan, there is a good chance that McCain will pick up quite a bit of support there, especially from Hillary Clinton supporters that did not appreciate the DNC handing Obama 59 delegates when his name wasn't on the ballot because he chose to remove it.
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